Donald Trump has a stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply as a result of Europe swapping its dependency on Russia for reliance on the US, analysis has shown.
In part due to the war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russian pipeline gas, European countries have become dependent on shipments of US liquified natural gas (LNG), according to a paper co-authored by the Clingendael Institute, in The Hague, the Ecologic Institute, in Berlin, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
The development is fraught with risk at a time when Trump has shifted “towards a more explicitly interest-driven, protectionist and ideologically charged approach”, the paper says.
The US president has most recently threatened to use tariffs on trade with European allies in order get their agreement on his acquisition of Greenland, which is part of Denmark, an EU member state and Nato ally.
Trump’s controversial national security strategy paper published in November explicitly stated that the White House was seeking US energy dominance, which “when and where necessary – enables us to project power”.
Data showed that imports to the European Economic Area of US LNG – natural gas that is supercooled to make it easier to transport – increased by 61% in 2025. The EEA comprises the 27 EU states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.
Imports to the EEA were up 485% compared with 2019 and US LNG now accounted for 59% of LNG imports to the EU, according to gas flows data from December.
In 2024, the UK covered 50% of its gas demand with domestic production and 33% with imports from the EEA. It is otherwise reliant on LNG, of which shipments from the US made up 68% of its total imports.
Pipeline gas imports from Russia accounted for 60% of EEA gas imports in 2019 but by 2025 this share had fallen to 8%.
Prof Kacper Szulecki, of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, said: “We have to acknowledge the new reality of Donald Trump’s American energy dominance and look at Europe’s imports cautiously.
“The US national security strategy of 2025 explicitly frames energy exports as a way to project power. The US has tried a similar approach in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan, attempting to talk European partners out of gas trade with the USSR. But back then there was no technology for liquefying natural gas, so Europe had no alternative but Russian pipeline gas.”
Szulecki said there was a short-term risk of higher energy bills as a result of the recent tensions.
“At the moment, gas reserves in the EU are very low, the lowest in years, and lower than at the outset of the war in Ukraine. If we have a cold winter and tensions with the US, leading to further price increases and reserve depletion, we might see a really dramatic energy crisis in the coming months,” he said.
AckerHerron on
Germany shutting its nuclear plants was one of the worst strategic decisions of the 21st century.
At least it’s not as bad as their worst strategic decision of the 20th century…
UnpluggedUnfettered on
The worst choice anyone made was imagining he was stupid.
Or he is a big mysterious dumb entity that no one can ever parse nah just kidding we all know this is normal and how we talk to people who are real we know
Edit cool. You made someone unhappy. Has to be interesting to think about that as a goal at least right?
mariuszmie on
Diversify diversify diversify
Ikbeneenpaard on
China realized it had limited energy resources and so went all-in on solar, wind, nuclear and electrification.
Europe has a strategic energy weakness and should learn from the Chinese strategy. We are already far behind.
buenassuenos on
Donr worry EU, midterms are approaching
Certain-Month-5981 on
We will buy from canada when they are ready, that will be soon
bindermichi on
Somehow this focuses only on the shift of gas imports rather than on the amount of gas used compared to other energy sources.
snakeoildriller on
No real alternative to US gas? I thought the Saudis were a major supplier?
Sunny_Nihilism on
Australia exists, and we’re already in your most important multi national institution EuroVision. Just saying.
10 commenti
Donald Trump has a stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply as a result of Europe swapping its dependency on Russia for reliance on the US, analysis has shown.
In part due to the war in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russian pipeline gas, European countries have become dependent on shipments of US liquified natural gas (LNG), according to a paper co-authored by the Clingendael Institute, in The Hague, the Ecologic Institute, in Berlin, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
The development is fraught with risk at a time when Trump has shifted “towards a more explicitly interest-driven, protectionist and ideologically charged approach”, the paper says.
The US president has most recently threatened to use tariffs on trade with European allies in order get their agreement on his acquisition of Greenland, which is part of Denmark, an EU member state and Nato ally.
Trump’s controversial national security strategy paper published in November explicitly stated that the White House was seeking US energy dominance, which “when and where necessary – enables us to project power”.
Data showed that imports to the European Economic Area of US LNG – natural gas that is supercooled to make it easier to transport – increased by 61% in 2025. The EEA comprises the 27 EU states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.
Imports to the EEA were up 485% compared with 2019 and US LNG now accounted for 59% of LNG imports to the EU, according to gas flows data from December.
In 2024, the UK covered 50% of its gas demand with domestic production and 33% with imports from the EEA. It is otherwise reliant on LNG, of which shipments from the US made up 68% of its total imports.
Pipeline gas imports from Russia accounted for 60% of EEA gas imports in 2019 but by 2025 this share had fallen to 8%.
Prof Kacper Szulecki, of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, said: “We have to acknowledge the new reality of Donald Trump’s American energy dominance and look at Europe’s imports cautiously.
“The US national security strategy of 2025 explicitly frames energy exports as a way to project power. The US has tried a similar approach in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan, attempting to talk European partners out of gas trade with the USSR. But back then there was no technology for liquefying natural gas, so Europe had no alternative but Russian pipeline gas.”
Szulecki said there was a short-term risk of higher energy bills as a result of the recent tensions.
“At the moment, gas reserves in the EU are very low, the lowest in years, and lower than at the outset of the war in Ukraine. If we have a cold winter and tensions with the US, leading to further price increases and reserve depletion, we might see a really dramatic energy crisis in the coming months,” he said.
Germany shutting its nuclear plants was one of the worst strategic decisions of the 21st century.
At least it’s not as bad as their worst strategic decision of the 20th century…
The worst choice anyone made was imagining he was stupid.
He [has never been that](https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/161110114037-trump-false-meme.jpg?q=w_1110,c_fill).
It is odd, what people have decided to decide he was a human like them.
Lmao he has always had ADHD and said his thoughts [that he has](https://youtu.be/1AwAAh60jBo?si=q3ut4jTbeGIAWmPa) while being as human as cancer which is its own debate
Or he is a big mysterious dumb entity that no one can ever parse nah just kidding we all know this is normal and how we talk to people who are real we know
Edit cool. You made someone unhappy. Has to be interesting to think about that as a goal at least right?
Diversify diversify diversify
China realized it had limited energy resources and so went all-in on solar, wind, nuclear and electrification.
Europe has a strategic energy weakness and should learn from the Chinese strategy. We are already far behind.
Donr worry EU, midterms are approaching
We will buy from canada when they are ready, that will be soon
Somehow this focuses only on the shift of gas imports rather than on the amount of gas used compared to other energy sources.
No real alternative to US gas? I thought the Saudis were a major supplier?
Australia exists, and we’re already in your most important multi national institution EuroVision. Just saying.