Ho trascorso le ultime settimane a fare ricerche su dove si stanno effettivamente dirigendo l’intelligenza artificiale e la robotica. Il quadro globale è affascinante, ma la situazione specifica del Regno Unito è preoccupante.
L’IPPR stima che fino a 8 milioni di posti di lavoro nel Regno Unito siano a rischio. PwC afferma che il 30% dei posti di lavoro esistenti nel Regno Unito potrebbe essere automatizzato entro l’inizio degli anni ’30. L’Università di Birmingham afferma che il piano d’azione del governo sull’intelligenza artificiale elude completamente la minaccia di spostamento dei posti di lavoro. La RUSI ha avvertito che non esiste alcun piano per riqualificare i lavoratori sfollati.
Nel frattempo la Cina ha una strategia nazionale sulla robotica e l’anno scorso ha spedito l’85% dei robot umanoidi del mondo. Gli Stati Uniti hanno considerato l’intelligenza artificiale una priorità per la sicurezza nazionale. L’UE ha approvato la legge sull’IA.
Il Regno Unito sta ancora discutendo sulla legge sul copyright per i dati di addestramento dell’IA e recentemente si è ritirato anche solo dal prevedere un’opzione preferenziale.
Ho scritto un articolo di ricerca completo che copre la reazione a catena dall’intelligenza artificiale ai robot, dalla deflazione all’UBI, con una sezione specifica sul motivo per cui la politica del Regno Unito è pericolosamente indietro: https://www.growthmode.agency/research/the-inevitable-destination
La tecnologia si muove su una linea temporale di 5-15 anni. La politica si muove su una linea temporale di 20-30 anni. Quel divario è dove vive il dolore.
Up to 8 million UK jobs at risk from AI and the government's AI Action Plan barely mentions it
byu/Plenty_Eagle3160 inunitedkingdom
di Plenty_Eagle3160
11 commenti
The money that a company pays a person is taxed at up to 67% (15% NI, + 2% NI + up to 60% income tax)
AI which is replacing them is effectively taxed at 0%
we need to consider this
In true British fashion the government will wait till we have no one working because of AI and then start to look into what to do all the while saying people need to get back to work as the benefits bill is too high
“Don’t worry, new jobs will be made, just upskill, we can’t just live in the past and continue with the old paradigm to suit you” – rich business owners
Work From Home smashes commercial building prices, and general costs of commuting.
“Well we think the old office paradigm actually works better, we shouldn’t progress for progress sakes and you’re removing people’s jobs if you don’t have to travel in” – also rich business owners.
Funny how when something disruptive makes them richer, suddenly everyone has to progress along that line, but when something disruptive makes them poorer, suddenly they pay people off to keep the old way going. Almost as if the entire thing is a load of shit sandwich and claiming it tastes different whether cut diagonally or across.
AI is insane. I had a manual job I was doing that took me about 2 hours. Recently asked Claude how I can use PowerShell to automate it and it did it gave me some code to copy and paste which worked. Now that 2 hours was cut down to 5 seconds. I daren’t tell my manager though. Keep it on the downlow for now. Just goes to show how easily you can be replaced by AI though.
Doesn’t that depend on AI improving to the point where it is capable of fully replacing an employee?
It’s is definitely something the government needs to plan for, but there’s no guarantee that AI as it currently is will get to this point, and you can’t just keep scaling it up by throwing more compute at it.
OpenAI has already had to scale back their planned expenditure on future data ceneters etc going from 1.4 trillion to 600 billion, which is still quite a lot for a company that doesn’t predict that it will make a profit until 2030.
I’m a software engineer, according to the AI companies and CEOs I have been 6 months away from losing my job to AI since 2023.
economists have been saying this for years. the rich will get richer the poor will get poorer. it will then be down to the government to simple give money to the people to live because all jobs are done by a.i. the entire economic structure has to be reworked to account for a work force that doesn’t have to be paid, a population out of work because they want to be paid
Why is this post allowed, it breaks at least like 3 of the rules
Media coverage of AI creating all this wealth – reminds me of the average person in London. Barely making ends meet but they should be grateful to be living in the great city amongst all the rich goodies they can never own. Or perhaps it’s more like Downton Abbey, servants are very honoured to work in a great house but can never own it.
I did see a Ben Elton show where he said if another country came to the UK and told us that they were going to do to our country, what AI is going to….we would declare war on them immediately as a threat to national security. But nobody is doing anything, it’s just bland acceptance instead of any sort of planning and legislation to protect ourselves, so it will be every person for themselves.
There’s an interesting scenario in Australia where they have been quietly expanding their public service to the largest numbers ever….health, disability and aged care predominantly. Jobs which AI can help with, but not replace. Traditionally the scourge of the right wing tax-cutters, they are quietening down as it seems a more socialist agenda and need to find a place for human endeavor, may become an absolute necessity.
The theory is that complaints about ‘big government’ will stop when private industry starts shedding tens of thousands of jobs, and suddenly ‘big government’ will be expected to deal with the results. Either a huge unaffordable unemployment bill, or at least government’s in most countries will be forced to start filling part of the gap and start employing **more** people to keep them productive and able to support themselves outside of the benefits system.
This is a recent risk assessment on the jobs that make up the Australia skilled jobs program, the one that points the way for migration and the skills they require. It makes for fascinating but very sobering reading. For the first time in a long time it may be preferable not to have gone to university or higher education, and to have taught yourself a trade, or be good with your hands. The white collar workforce will be more than decimated and those with jobs that are currently seen as simpler and not valuable, may see their stock rise enormously.
[https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/](https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/)
Works in finance as Management accountant and have been a business partner before. 50% of accounting jobs are going to be gone in the next few years. Alot of month end processes can be given to AI
And Commercial roles, I’ve seen AI take the data and analyse it and post it in slack to a very high level. Why hire a business partner on 70k + all the other bits when Claude can do it
We are screwed and people aren’t ready for it.
LLM AI is ok at doing noddy MVP CRUD apps or prototypes.. sod using it on anything serious. On my ‘serious’ DSP project it’s useful for boiler plate, but any hardcore development tasks it’s worse than doing it yourself. imagine a junior dev with “needs sectioning” levels of dunning kruger syndrome