La testa di Aliyev verrà mangiata e non ci sarà guerra. Armeni, uscite dallo stato di paura. Vova Vardanov |: Mangeranno la testa di Aliyev e la guerra non ci sarà. Armeni, uscite dallo stato di paura

Very interesting few points by Vova:

+ He corroborates many other analysts by saying that unlike in 2020, Azerbaijan doesn’t have the international backing needed for an invasion. The current support of Russia, is also a half assed attempt since Russia is in a war with the west.

+ He talks about Arayik Harutyunyan (the major general of Armenia in 2020 that was hit by a HAROP drone back in the war) and that he has a lot of time to think now that he is in court for failing to uphold Armenia’s defenses in the areas that he was given.

+He confirms that this is a political war that is ongoing, and that it is meant to be this brutal. He mentions the current political war to Tajikistan in 1992.

+ He says that he sees no possible way that Azerbaijan will hand over the remaining lands, unless they agree to follow their promises.

>Reporter cuts in and asks that if we don’t concede people say there will be war.

+ Vova says that the people who are afraid will say that, because a war will **not** happen. If people are so afraid let them come help us build a “nation-Army”.

His pov is corroborated by other analysts:

1- If Russia allows Aliyev to attack, then the US will “eat” Aliyev.

2- If US allows ALiyev to Attack, then Ru will “eat” Aliyev.

Azerbaijan therefore fears internal strife (which he compares to Vazgen Sargsyan) and says they are bluffing since 2022.

———————————————

TLDR: He believes that currently there is nothing to fear in terms of a war. And that if people are afraid, they should join the Army-nation.

————————
Other important points:

+ He says that while a **war is unlikely, skirmishes are very possible**. US and the EU have no power here, Ru won’t strengthen Armenia to the point of independence, and Iran **might** interfere if Meghri is in danger.

+ Vova confirms that the engineering work done in the areas where the villages were returned are good “enough” to defend against an Azerbaijani army, unlike previous years.

+ Pashinyan should have shown to the people that the current demarcation is to the benefit of Armenia, but has failed to do so. And to do it, he should have asked for an exchange of lands between both countries.

+ And if he had received a no for an answer, then he should have promptly prepared for battle. Even after receiving the threat of an attack in 1 week (which hasn’t happened in 1.5 months). He says it’s a bluff.

+ Vova denies that the army is ready. He says that they have **Started to be ready**. And blames the very slow process.

———————————-

>Asked about **regime change**

A new head will change nothing, the process will still be slow, but this time maybe for the worst, maybe for the better.

**If, however, we are pressuring the government with Social pressure** things can be for the better, if we are indifferent, nothing will happen.

“It’s not the driver, it’s the car“ that’s faulty.

>Asked about a “strong” government

If you mean a strong militarized government, then that scares me. In the last 200 years, starting from the French Revolution, Many cases have been where militaries have come to power.

And in those 100’s of cases (including in colonial states), there has only been very very few cases have been positive for the people, let alone the state.

>asked about Bagrat

He says that he believes in the purity of Bagrat. And praises him.

He says that he might not know much on foreign policy, and that his “quotes” can’t be used to govern a country. he can definitely force the Armenian gov to do something if they want to.

He continues by saying that every Armenian has a right to be in parliament, since the era of Bolshevism is over.