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    L’orso nei Paesi Baltici: rivalutare la minaccia russa in Estonia – Consiglio europeo per le relazioni estere

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    1. GreenEyeOfADemon on

      russia could attack Estonia through rapid invasion to capture Narva or a hybrid Crimea-style annexation with disinformation and special forces, European Council on Foreign Relations reports. Both scenarios would end in strategic disaster for Moscow.

    2. TrueRignak on

      > We conclude that, in contrast to the situation RAND saw in 2016, neither scenario could succeed strategically today or for about five to 10 years after the end of the Ukraine war, even with minimal US assistance.

      US providing minimal assistance is the best case scenario, and not a very likely considering one they are joining Russia in the axis of authoritarianism and explicitely set to dismantle EU as national security strategy.

      What we should prepare against is that, when Russia attack the UE, the US would (1) threathen us of sanctions if we defend ourself with US weapons (I can already see them telling us it would be escalation) and (2) seize Greenland under the pretext of “protecting” it.

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