Spero che alcuni polacchi o tedeschi delle regioni di confine, o persone che conoscono entrambi i paesi, possano aiutarmi a spiegare qualcosa che sinceramente mi lascia perplesso.
Quando si guardano le mappe elettorali, sembra esserci un contrasto politico molto netto lungo il confine tedesco-polacco, in particolare nel nord-est e intorno alla Sassonia.
Per esempio:
- Stettino e la più ampia regione della Pomerania occidentale (Zachodniopomorskie) sostengono costantemente la Piattaforma civica/Coalizione civica (PO/KO). Nelle recenti elezioni, il PO/KO ha ottenuto circa il 40-45% a livello regionale, e la stessa Stettino è considerata una roccaforte della politica liberale/centrista.
- Appena oltre il confine, nelle zone rurali del Meclemburgo-Pomerania Anteriore vicino a Stettino (luoghi come Vorpommern-Greifswald), l’AfD spesso ottiene circa il 40% o più, a volte arrivando primo nelle elezioni locali o federali.
Il contrasto è ancora più netto più a sud:
- Görlitz (Sassonia) è una delle aree dell’AfD più forti in Germania, con il partito che ha ricevuto circa il 45-50% nelle recenti elezioni del Bundestag. È anche il collegio elettorale di Tino Chrupalla, uno dei leader più importanti dell’AfD.
- Direttamente al di là del fiume, a Zgorzelec e nella circostante regione della Bassa Slesia, i modelli di voto sembrano molto diversi. Il PO/KO tende ad essere competitivo o dominante, e la regione nel complesso tende al centrosinistra/liberale, piuttosto che al nazionalismo nel senso inteso dall’AfD tedesca.
Ciò che mi confonde è che:
- Secondo quanto riferito, Görlitz ha una vasta popolazione con radici polacche (spesso citate come molto significative a livello locale).
- Lo stesso Tino Chrupalla è etnicamente polacco.
- Economicamente, queste sono tutte regioni di confine postindustriali, con declino demografico, emigrazione e salari più bassi rispetto alle medie nazionali.
Tuttavia, a livello politico, i risultati divergono nettamente.
Guardando le mappe:
- Quasi tutta la Germania orientale (a parte Berlino e la Baviera, che è conservatrice ma non dominata dall’AfD) è ora fortemente dominata dall’AfD.
- In Polonia, lo schema è quasi invertito: la parte orientale della Polonia vota fortemente PiS, mentre la parte occidentale, comprese le aree confinanti con la Germania, vota PO/KO.
Quindi la mia vera domanda è:
Perché le regioni vicine con storie, economie e dati demografici simili finiscono per votare in modi così opposti?
Apprezzerei soprattutto l’intuizione dei polacchi che vivono vicino al confine tedesco, delle persone della Sassonia o del Meclemburgo-Pomerania Anteriore o di chiunque comprenda entrambe le culture politiche.
Non sto cercando di sottolineare un punto, sto sinceramente cercando di capire cosa sta succedendo qui.
Why does eastern Germany vote so strongly right-wing, while neighbouring western Poland votes centre-left?
byu/Apprehensive-Income inpoland
di Apprehensive-Income
13 commenti
The least economically successful part of Germany happens to be next to the most economically successful part of Poland.
On the German side, resentments and weird post-Soviet nostalgia fed by the russkies bots.
On the Polish side, growing prosperity with good work ethics and great appreciation for the things the EU brought.
I’m sure this is wide-brush only but in essence, it seems correct.
The economies are only technically similar. In the context of a country they are polar opposites. West being the wealthier in both countries, demographic structure may be also skewed similarly (I didn’t check) so east Germany more alike to east Poland.
PO isnt centre-left in any means
Answer is really simple. In Poland things are improving, country is developing etc… while in Eastern Germany everything is in decline, people are pessimistic etc.
Eastern Germany is kind of similar to Eastern Poland. It is Germany B (or C).
I can say from the ukrainian perspective. Western Ukraine is consistently Pro-European while Eastern and Southern were more towards russia (before the war). Looks like eastern regions are more susceptible to russian propaganda and bribery. Also eastern Germany was under Soviet unfluence after ww2.
https://preview.redd.it/7ib3boaupm9g1.jpeg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e55c395d3a7ef18fda19292459ddcde3a66213b2
Poland was never divided like Germany.
Meanwhile in Germany, West kinda screwed over East, while in Poland people that led the change of the government would mostly get to rule, with Wałęsa being a president, those that led Peaceful Revolution in East Germany got largely sidelined by the western politicians pouring tons of resources into the last elections of East Germany, thus the reunification was extrelemy skewed towards the west.
Mieszkańcy z Ziem Odzyskanych dużo chętniej orientowali się na Niemcy i tam też najczęściej szukali oraz znajdowali pracę. Dlatego partia proniemiecka i prounijna znalazła tam swój matecznik. Im mniej tego całego folkloru płynącego z Wwy tym lepiej.
Dokładnie z tych samych powodów we wschodnich Noemczech wygrywa skrajna prawica.
If you are Polish you should check a video from Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) about this.
https://youtu.be/Uy8BIU4bVsw
I think the key is not that these regions are “objectively” similar, but how people interpret their situation.
In eastern Germany, many people feel a lost promise: after reunification, it was supposed to be “like the West,” but in daily life, it often isn’t. This creates frustration and a sense of grievance. The AfD populism taps into this effectively, offering a simple narrative: it’s not your fault, someone took something from you, and there are specific culprits (elites, Berlin, migrants, the EU). This gives a sense of meaning and control.
In western Poland, the context is different. The transformation and EU integration are more often perceived as a real advancement: open borders, investments, jobs, mobility. In this situation, narratives about threats or “stolen prosperity” are less convincing, so centrist and liberal parties perform better.
That’s why similar structural problems can lead to completely different political choices. Populism works where it resonates with strong emotions of loss, injustice, and lack of control, and these emotions have different roots on each side of the border.
Because they are extremely based 🗿
Eastern Germany is post-Soviet, generally poorer and votes conservative, with the exception of west Berlin, which wasn’t controlled by Soviets (or Berlin in general because it’s a big city).
Eastern Poland is post-Soviet, generally poorer and votes conservative, with the exception of Warsaw, which is a big city.
There you have it, obligatory r/widaczabory, is this post intentionally dense?
EDIT: Also, far-right political parties are gaining popularity in Poland, anyway. All truly left wing parties are about to either get fragmented right below the election threshold or completely gobbled up by KO, meanwhile maniacs like Braun are in the double digits now.
EDIT 2: Another important thing to look at — in both cases the far-right gains popularity in areas neighbouring countries the particular people view as lesser. In other words, the entry points for any “evil immigrants taking our jobs and money and women”. For Germany it’s Poland, for Poland it’s Belarus and Ukraine.
The unification of Germany was an economic botch at the cost of the eastern parts. Weak socio-economic regions are more open to anti-establishment resentments, which is exactly what the right wing parties tap into to gather support.
Polish center-left is de facto CDU in Germany