Il mese scorso ho chiesto se Orbán potesse effettivamente perdere. Ho eseguito nuovamente 40.000 simulazioni. Ora non è nemmeno vicino. [OC]

A month ago I posted my election forecast here and it sparked a big debate. The model has been updated with new polling data, and the picture has changed dramatically.

**Then vs. now:**

||Feb 9|Mar 8|Change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|TISZA (opposition) majority|50.6%|71.7%|+21pp|
|Fidesz (Orbán) majority|45.0%|16.9%|-28pp|
|Deadlock|4.4%|11.4%|+7pp|

TISZA now wins the most seats in **77% of simulations**. Orbán’s chance of holding an independent majority has collapsed from 45% to 17%.

The twist: the far-right Mi Hazánk has surged back toward the 5% parliamentary threshold (entry probability: 73%, up from 26%). If they get in, they become a potential kingmaker and the chance that *nobody* can form a government nearly triples.

Five weeks out, the question isn’t really “can Orbán lose?” anymore. It’s whether TISZA can win outright, or whether Mi Hazánk forces everyone into coalition talks.

Full analysis: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/)

Previous forecast: [https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1r4oku8/can_orb%C3%A1n_actually_lose_i_ran_40000_simulations/](https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1r4oku8/can_orb%C3%A1n_actually_lose_i_ran_40000_simulations/)

Happy to answer questions about the model or Hungarian electoral politics.

Let’s hope. What would happen in case of a tie?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t call into question your simulations, I don’t know if it maters. In Belarus the dictator also lost.

Like other butcher said: It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.

And that’s part of the ex-Soviet union culture now.

Ok, but did you take any russian interferance into account?

I’ll be honest, I hate these posts. Because this will make voters think it will be an easy Tisza win, and the same thing will happen as in the US when democrats tought they were gonna win no problem and did not go vote. This is not over till it’s over.

And even then, Fidesz has so much power outside of the parliament that if Tisza doesn’t have supermajority it will be hell for them to do anything.

You will be in for a huge surprise, because the Orbán crime syndicate will cheat their way into power again. He sucked Purins dick last week to ensure his win.

Why is Tisza even considered better than Fidesz? Tisza leader was part of Fidesz for 22 years and to my eye, of someone who knows little about Hungarian politics, Magyar does not seem any better. 

In almost all countries in EU the right/conservative always did better than in poles and predictions. Like we had in Polish presidental elections where all the polls showed that the center/left candidate would win and boom. We got more conservative president winning by 1pp.

Tisha will win 100% but I would not be super optimistic that they will have the supermajority etc.

Same story with trump.

What’s the DK majority win chance