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16 commenti
There’s no reopening it. Evil Benjamin and Orange Spray-Paint fkd up big time.
Starmer really has no choice.
The GCC countries are against the war, and they are suffering directly. Whilst Trump may be incompetent enough as a global politician to grasp multi-dimensional challenges, Starmer clearly isn’t. Nothing at this level is ever binary like a real estate deal. There isn’t an obvious winner and loser. Trump doesn’t have the capacity or capability to think this way.
Starmer has to consider that as long as the Straight remains blocked (for whatever reason) that impacts on the UK economy, and also even more on the GCC countries. UK business in the Middle East and Asia is impacted due to flight problems. We can’t project power like the USA, but the UK along with other EU allies can project influence and one way is to assist the GCC countries. That is a message to them who didn’t support the war.
The fact that Trump benefits is temporary. The political benefit of supporting the Gulf countries will benefit the UK long after Trump has gone.
Trump’s lost the war. Nothing he does now can recover that. All that he can do is minimise the loss. Nothing the UK can do can minimise that. Iran will still be Iran in a years time. The only thing that will change Iran is an uprising from the inside like in Syria, and the ducks are not lined up in a row for that.
Which means Trump has lost. The issue for the grown ups in the room now is after your child has had a tantrum and broken their toys, do you pick them off the floor to stop your other children being hurt.
That’s the choice for Starmer.
Be a grown up and project the UK as a responsible world power and partner, or sit back in his chair and send a selfie to Trump of a middle digit with a big “F U” underneath.
He probably wants to do the latter. But a Prime Minister should do the former.
The *only* way it reopens is if Trump and Netanyahu back down and sign a ceasefire with Iran with guarantees that they won’t re-engage in military action against them for the foreseeable future. That’s it, nothing else is going to end this. I hope I’m not being pessimistic in thinking that Starmer perhaps refuses to recognise that
Use the wind turbines in the north sea to power oil drilling operations?
I see the 4 Stages of the Foreign Office Strategy is playing out nicely:
* Stage 1: We say nothing is going to happen.
* Stage 2: We say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
* Stage 3: We say maybe we should do something about it, but there is nothing we can do. **<– We are up to here**
* Stage 4: We say maybe there was something we could have done, but it is too late now.
We aren’t going to send warships to a war that is already won. Just a tangerine dream
Apparently its open for anyone but America and their only Ally in this War.
Glad to have a smart PM for once, glad we are also sanding in unity with our European Allies, we should be focused on Ukraine, not Trumps illegal war that he started
Well think of it like this, until we start seeing Ships leaving, our input will be minimized… Keep an eye on Gibraltar, since if they pass through in sight of them, they’re only heading towards the Red Sea and SoH….
And until that happens, this is lip service. He’s likely going to leave it to the Med’s European Fleet, maybe some Indian or SK/Japanese vessels might show up too.
Though I’d rather the Yanks fixed this mess.
I think Iran could keep going on all day with the missile strikes. Its basically Vietnam/Afghanistan but with a more powerful regime.
Asymmetric warfare is a bitch and history shows us America always loses these wars.
All Iran has to do is sit back, dictate what to attack. Taliban did that successfully during the US withdrawal, the Vietnamese did that successfully during Tet Offensive.
We’re just powerless to get involved at this stage without either:
1. appeasing trump/israelis
2. risking our economy
3. negotiating with Russia/China (they are benefiting from this war 100%, we are not)
All bad options on the table.
Meanwhile, Reform UK et al complaining about immigrants, climate change is a hoax lets use more oil and gas (screw renewables), meanwhile they sit in their luxury penthouses in Dubai/GCC avoiding tax.
World is seriously corrupt today.
Looks like this may be the start of the decline of Pax America, where Russia/China/India start to make inroads in the world economy.
There is no military solution to this. Yes, you can convoy tankers through the straits, but some of them will be destroyed. That is not a risk insurers and owners will take.
The very few truly operational ships in the British Navy will make no difference anyway.
Not clear what the diplomatic solution is mind. Last summer Iran was bombed and they were quite restrained.
As the US came back for another bite, being restrained obviously doesn’t pay. Therefore they will make Trump feel pain for a long time so that he doesn’t try it again.
How long can Iran can hide out in the mountains and launch temu drones at ships? I bet the cost to keep it closed is probably a few order of magnitude less than it is to keep it open..
This is Starme’ss moment to shine …. Let’s see if he manages
It’s a mess, Trump gambled that decapitating the Iranian would be like kicking the doors in on a rotten building. I think their main hope now is to encourage some kind of military coup to take place.
Proud of my PM. He’s not perfect but he’s handling/balancing this crazy US administration as good as one can. (This comes from a dual US/UK citizen who despises Trump but respects Starmer)
I’m thinking American’s military isn’t as good as they thought it was