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3 commenti
Gotland has near zero strategic value now that the Baltic Sea countries in its entirety sans Kaliningrad and Russian ports by Saint Petersburg is NATO controlled.
Russia will not be able to reinforce through the straights separating Denmark and Sweden if they are closed. The body of water by Finland, can’t recall its name, giving Russia access can be mined and controlled by anti ship missiles. Kaliningrad cannot be resupplied or reinforced by sea.
NATO does not necessarily need Gotland to have readily accessible airfields for controlling Kaliningrad or air space in a wider area.
NATO submarines in conjunction with air superiority would definitively keep the Kaliningrad navy elements in port. Leaving is a death sentence, staying within an integrated air defence bubble might be a better option. Albeit imperfect and likely leading to loss of ships.
The whole Russia can do anything spiel the moment NATO closes down the Baltic and actively hunts down its assets is tiresome. It doesn’t mean there won’t be NATO losses, but the end result is pretty much guaranteed.
What Ukraine managed over a couple of years running an extremely lean naval organisation is nothing compared to what European NATO countries can bring in when necessary. Impressive Ukrainian results not withstanding the same would be achieved but much faster through more conventional means.
Gotland was a fantastic strategic asset for Sweden when the military and geographic realities was vastly more even sided and there effectively was four players in the game in the Baltic Sea; NATO on one hand, the ussr and comblock countries like Baltics, Poland, east Germany on the other. With Sweden and Finland in their own little predicaments.
This reality no longer exit, hence Gotland has lost much of its relevance. I do not get why Gotland is harped about as much as it is…
Is it? Things have changed a bit since the Teutonic order… islands are useful but also dangerously exposed and hard to resupply.
It’s easy to deploy enough forces in Gotland to make air or sea assaults very hard, and even if it was taken, it’s even easier to hammer it and deny resupply. If the Russians have enough control in the Baltic to make Gotland useful, you have much bigger issues.
this “unsinkable aircraft carrier” thing is a bit mind boggling. Do People forget to remember that islands and air strips on islands are older than carriers? Yes, you put air bases in strategic locations to cover a particular air space. Always have. The hallmark of carriers is that they can move.