Ho eseguito 40.000 simulazioni delle elezioni ungheresi. L’opposizione (TISZA) ha ora l’80% di possibilità di vincere a titolo definitivo, e il kingmaker di estrema destra sta svanendo. [OC]

This is my third update here. The first time it was a coin flip. The second time the opposition had pulled decisively ahead. Now, two weeks before the vote, the picture has shifted again.

The shift since my last r/europe post (March 8):

– TISZA (opposition) majority: 71.7% → 79.7% (+8pp)

– Fidesz (Orbán) majority: 16.9% → 12.4% (-4.5pp)

– Deadlock: 11.4% → 7.9% (-3.5pp)

– Mi Hazánk enters parliament: 72.8% → 61.0% (-11.8pp)

Last time the story was Mi Hazánk (far-right) surging toward parliament and threatening to make everything more complicated. That trend has now reversed: their entry probability peaked at 81.6% and has since dropped to 61.0%. Without a third party splitting seats, TISZA’s vote lead translates more directly into a majority.

Orbán’s own numbers haven’t moved. But the math around him has. His party’s chance of holding an independent majority has gone from 45% in February to 17% in early March to 12.4% today.

Two weeks out, the question is no longer whether Orbán can lose. It’s whether the opposition wins big enough to govern alone, or just wins.

Full analysis: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-28/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-28/)

Happy to answer questions about the model or Hungarian electoral politics.

I still think it might be on the edge.