La banca centrale russa taglia a zero le previsioni di crescita del PIL
https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/25/russian-central-bank-cuts-gdp-growth-forecast-to-zero-expects-faster-inflation
di Hopeful_Drive5845
La banca centrale russa taglia a zero le previsioni di crescita del PIL
https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/25/russian-central-bank-cuts-gdp-growth-forecast-to-zero-expects-faster-inflation
di Hopeful_Drive5845
14 commenti
Russia’s central bank has cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.0-1.0% and expects faster inflation as the fuel crisis drives up prices for many goods and services, its head Elvira Nabiullina said.
The Central Bank of Russia expects inflation at 6–7% in 2026 “due to the significant increase in fuel prices that has already occurred”.
Previously, the regulator had expected it to slow to 4.5–5.5%.
Inflation expectations among households, businesses and financial market participants have risen. Their persistence at elevated levels may impede a sustained slowdown in inflation, the Bank of Russia said in a press release.
“The fuel situation falls into what is known as supply shocks,” admitted Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Bank of Russia, at a press conference on the same day.
Since mid-May, fuel price growth has accelerated, and in June several Russian regions faced shortages after Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries in Russia in response to the war launched by the Kremlin.
At the same time, some analysts forecast that by the end of the year inflation in Russia could turn out even higher, including as a result of strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian logistics centres.
The forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 has been cut from 0.5–1.5% to 0.0–1.0%, including the projection for the fourth quarter (from 1.0–2.0% to 0.0–1.5% year-on-year).
“Companies expect demand to slow, as follows from the real-time data. Taking into account the temporary reduction in capacity in the economy, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast,” the head of the Bank of Russia commented.
The Central Bank expects that “fuel production capacity will gradually be restored by the end of the year”, but Ukraine continues to use its “long-range sanctions” in response to Russian attacks.
On Saturday, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Tyumen, a logistics facility in Yekaterinburg and a fuel and lubricants depot in Rostov-on-Don.
Can’t cut it to negative, else a window awaits..
And putin still threatens the west…
The guy is in a death spiral.
His inner circle know it, he’s been called publicly out by Prigozhin and now the other military guy is making noise. He has nowhere to go but a humiliating retreat or destruction of Russian society and economy
Putin did that! meme. 🤣
I expect a few more wild berries will be burning soon.
Ukraine might even start working on the power grids.
Oh, what’s the problem?
In the Central Bank formal annual update in the summer of 2024, she said that after the summer of 2026 “all bets are off”.
I think the fact they are reducing it so quickly is the real signal here.
Definitely going to be negative by the end of the year and the real figure will be much lower.
Seems optimistic
should be -20% per day
The think tank Centre For Economic and Business Research has predicted Russia will fall from the 9th largest to the 16th largest economy between now and 2040, a fall of 7 places in just 14 years. It’s starting to make sense why they think that now.
The head of Russian central bank in the picture is rumored to be the most competent person who keeps the Russian economy afloat. Hope Ukraine relieves her of her services, she should rest…
I wonder if disappearance of large chunk of wildberries from their economy was counted in the estimate, because I think we’re easily talking about multibillion dollar drop in ecommerce. I read estimates that loss from the biggest warehouse hit was estimated at around $2bn and we got 4-5 hit already.
“If only Putin knew, he could fix this all”
GDP numbers will be funny after war, when all of a sudden you need to stop investing into army to start healing other sectors.