Se l’Europa vuole la pace, deve pianificare la guerra
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/if-europe-wants-peace-it-must-plan-for-war
di AlexandrTheTolerable
Se l’Europa vuole la pace, deve pianificare la guerra
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/if-europe-wants-peace-it-must-plan-for-war
di AlexandrTheTolerable
19 commenti
Snippets from the article:
The security of Europe is entering a perilous and enduring decline. In 2025 Russia will have the upper hand in Ukraine. America, looking towards Asia under President Donald Trump, will become viciously transactional. Not since the 1930s have European leaders so urgently needed to summon the courage to face reality and the statesmanship to take action. Unfortunately, Europe’s leaders are weak and distracted by their problems at home. Instead of standing up they are more likely to bury their heads deeper in the sand.
Mr Putin knows the West has failed to stop Russia, even though doing so would avoid the costly, dangerous alternative of defending the frontiers of northern and eastern Europe instead. He will rightly surmise that Europe is too weak-willed and complacent to face the changing geopolitical reality. If he concludes that he has more chances to disrupt NATO, his behaviour will become yet more aggressive.
The task of making Europe safe is immense, and will take years. All the more reason to start work now. Leaders must be clear to their people about the dangers ahead, starting with the idea that Russia wants to destroy the EU and NATO, not just Ukraine.
Another requirement is for European countries to forge a common front. Both Mr Putin and Mr Trump will strive to divide them. For Mr Putin division is an end in itself; for Mr Trump it is a means to undermine Europe’s leverage in negotiations.
The last requirement is to start building a deterrent to Mr Putin. Europe needs larger armed forces. They need to be equipped by a defence industry with greater capacity. They need a command structure, in case Mr Trump refuses to let America fight. It will not come cheap. Europe has been unable to muster enough willpower to prevent a Ukrainian defeat. In 2025, does it have the resolve to avert something even worse?
France and UK have nuclear weapons, Russia is not stupid enough to attack a nuclear power.
Europe has been way to reliant on U.S military presence in Europe. It really is encouraging that European countries now are starting spend more on military, and not continue the Merkel-approach of trying to keep the peace by making Europe and Russia reliant on each others resources, like with the Nord Stream-projects.
Haaahh shiit!!! Here we go again.
Si vis pacem para bellum
Lol can economist just chill.
The quote is “…prepare for war”. Media is such a joke these days.
Preserving the peace by preparing for war
Yes, 100%. The only way to prevent war is by being ready for it
I think the biggest lesson the EU and Europe more broadly needs to learn is that you cannot trust a country that is not committed to democracy, rule of law and fundamental rights and that does not see its future in peaceful coexistence
Turning a blind eye to those issues and hoping that by building normal relations, partnership and growing trade that everything would be lovely simply hasn’t worked as a strategy.
Russia understands the world through a lens of projection of power – military or economic. They exist in a Cold War worldview that really didn’t change very much and I think we were far too optimistic in the assumption that the Berlin Wall came down and life would be wonderful.
Part of this is also down to having had a bunch of ultra capitalists emerge, ride roughshod over the remains of the USSR and effectively grab previously socially owned resources, massively enrich themselves and become the present day Russian oligarchy.
Whether Europe could have done much about that is another question. I don’t think it could, but that’s effectively why we have a big, unstable, oil rich, yet impoverished mess on our eastern borders, with a population apparently trying to restore a sense of greatness though invasions and missiles.
I don’t see Russia stabilising anytime soon. It just does not have the political culture to become anything else. If it can’t get past locking up and killing political opponents, it’s not going to change. I can’t see it becoming any less of a threat. The only medium term solution is going to be protection and containment. That’s the sad reality of it.
Had the 1990s produced maybe a modern social democracy in Russia, it could be an entirely different world now, but it’s not and that would have required a totally different political culture that didn’t exist.
I don’t really think anyone can resolve this other than the Russia population, but in the meantime I would rather remain unnuked and not invaded, so unfortunately that means Europe is going to have to protect itself.
The least worst outcome I think is likely to be Cold War II, but it’s at least better than World War III.
Genuine question. I’ve a bit of a background in nuclear security and policy. May I ask those better qualified/more experience: do you think we will see an increase in the number of French nuclear weapons?
I feel France has been signalling over the past few years that they identify Europe as part of their core sphere and have somewhat suggested that they would defend European states with nuclear weapons should one be used in aggression against Europe.
Is it reasonable to consider that France might start to expand its stockpile as sort of a stop gap measure while it and the rest of Europe expand their defence industries? I am happy to accept being called a moron, it’s been a while since I’ve read up on this. I’d love to hear your opinions
Well, have to say that actually not always a fan of this ancient saying, but it really may be appropriate for the present EU-related circumstances:
>***Si Vis Pacem, Parabellum***
I’ve heard this one, in a different language (“si vis pacem para bellum”)
Just the typical BS we’ve been hearing from the media since Trumps victory! Europe will do what it always does – bury its head in the sand, change absolutely nothing – while the world is burning. It appears the only way for a change in Europe is through blood! Fortunately we have Russia and the Russians are absolute masters at spilling blood!
Speak softly and carry a big stick
What if Europe wants war ? We can’t plan for war then?
I really hope for some new tech jobs, automotive ia going downhil, europe must come with some war high tech stuff we can get some good paying jobs
This arms race is gonna cost us: money to taxpayers, reduced social services, degradation of the environment and increased risk of a nuclear world war.
Europe’s fear of an imperialist Russia is reasonable, but Russia’s fear of an independent Ukraine joining NATO is also reasonable. Rather than building up their respective firepower they should strive towards agreement and de-escalation while there’s still time. But they don’t.
Modern humans are cavemen with added firepower.
no, Europe is already in war, if we want peace we first have to win