Il 2025 sarà una ripetizione del 1938 per l’Europa?
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/will-2025-be-repeat-1938-europe
di JackRogers3
Il 2025 sarà una ripetizione del 1938 per l’Europa?
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/will-2025-be-repeat-1938-europe
di JackRogers3
24 commenti
It is tempting to compare the two years. Any deal that Trump negotiates with Putin may have similar features to Munich: land for temporary peace. The West has already weakened its negotiating position by taking immediate NATO membership for Ukraine off the table. So what will happen if Putin renews his attack in one, three or five years?
If an articles title is a question, the answer is no
I think its more closely to 100 distance, so we are now in year 1925 … more than 10 years till new world war.
When did 1933 repeat, did I miss that?
The EU should increase its military budget and even consider consolidating or modernizing its nuclear capabilities. The reliability of the US as an ally is tied too closely to its political leadership, which fluctuates with each administration.
Donald Trump represents the beginning of a shift towards more pronounced populism in US politics. While Trump operates primarily as a businessman using populist rhetoric to gain votes, future populists are likely to adopt more defined ideological frameworks. This evolution makes populism an increasingly significant and dangerous force in global politics.
The EU must move away from its ideological fixation on virtue signaling and adapt to the realities of a competitive world. This includes not shying away from tactics such as elite buyouts, strategic propaganda, and international influence-building – tools already utilized by rival powers like China and Russia.
The global stage is no longer a place for moral absolutism; it is a “dirty dance,” where everyone plays by their own rules. The EU must learn to navigate this environment strategically, ensuring its music is louder and its performance stronger than the competition.
Very unlikely. Russia is struggling to maintain their stupid war in Ukraine presently, they lack the manpower and resources to open a new front with European nations. They were weak to begin with, a direct confrontation with NATO would mean a catastrophic defeat in weeks. And they failed to gather any allies to their cause. The most friendly powers like China or India simply buy their oil in exchange for non-military industrial products.
We are more likely in late 20s or early 30s rather than 1938. I feel like the importance of the events from 1938, including the feelings of betrayal of an entire nation, have increasingly lesser impact since we’re constantly comparing everything to 1938.
It is, people dont realize this. Putin still has the option of general mobilization. He can still include more North Korean troops. Outside of Ukraine, Europe doesnt have a lot of military personnel.
Ceasefire means time for Putin to arm-up, finish mobilization, involve 100k North Koreans and repeat. Maybe he even waits until Trump is gone, but once he attacks again its WW3.
Russia has failing economy, just like Germany had – all their eggs in military basket. There’s no easy way to go off that path once it has been taken.
Ukraine is really far from Czechoslovakia. Even if Trump makes a pact with Putin, nothing can force Ukraine or Europe to accept it. And while USA is single biggest contributor to Ukraine, Europe as a whole is bigger, and can (and should) be much bigger. Ammunition and weapons factories are being built slowly, but they are being built, including in Ukraine.
While parts of Europe are becoming tired of war, there is also more support for further escalation, like sending in actual fighting troops.
I dont think Trump can make any treaty which is good and and gets accepted. And although president of USA has lot of power over USA’s politics concerning Ukraine, its not absolute power. Its not quaranteed USA will end support for Ukraine.
There is very real chance that Ukraine will be able to keep fighting long enough to win the war.
Its not over yet, anything may still happen.
No, because 2014 already was our times’ 1938.
No, but it is a repeat of the period between 1870s and 1910s though. Pure example of global capitalism turning to madness
1920s and 1930s had completely different political climate and extremism arose due to different reasons.
Hope not … but it seems that more and more countries swing to the right …
That’s just one motivation why I hate European union, and is weakness, where are leaders that want a real strong army ? Where are leaders who act REALLY against Russian and middle eastern intrusions in Europe ?
2022 was 1938 already. When Russia started full scale was against Ukraine and most of european politicians were just ‘deeply concerned’.
Putin is busy in Ukraine and Trump annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama.
Western Europe is safe, no one wants to conquer pensioners.
A article form a defense think-tank. I am sure it is not a propaganda piece.
No that already happened during the financial crisis in the 2010s when everyone surrendered the continent to Germany.
I am sorry, but I find it very hard to compare Hitler with Putin. I mean.. look at Russia today. Seriously.. They need help from North Korea and Iran in a fight against one country. They threat with nuclear weapons bc they can’t fight a “classic” war. They use cyber attacks and different cheap tactics bc they are tired, they lack the funds, they lack great generals and they have no credible vision. Nobody (not even Russians themselves) believes or finds any real purpose in what is happening. Putin is not Hitler. Putin is just a sad old man, afraid of everything. He is not surrounded by good generals or visionaries. He is surrounded by mediocre puppets he has not killed yet. Everything he does looks like it is about to collapse soon. I suspect the people who were around him in 2014 are no longer part of his council. If they had a plan.. it’s dead and buried a long time ago. What we see now is not Ukraine’s fight – but Russia’s own fight for survival. And if Putin (or any other Russian) has a little bit of brain left – they will take *any* deal from Trump. Literally *any deal*. China is smiling in the background and breathing in their necks.
If we arm ourselves: no!
We need to ramp up our materiel production capabilities by an order of magnitude! It’ll take time and we should have started on it in 2014. But better late than never!!
‘Virtue signalling’ = making the communities we live in better places to live.
I just hope 45² will be somewhat better than 44².
Many say no. But I say – it could be. But it is not [ all ] about Russia. It is about China.
Relative power of Third Reich and USSR (both economic and military) to the rest of European countries was enormously higher than power of Russia vs. EU. What we should be aware of is Russian, Chinese ans unfortunately even US support for destruction of EU. All of them hate idea of common foreign policy of EU – they want to travel separately to Paris, Berlin, Warsaw or Budapest instead of Brussels – it is easier for them to divide and conquer this way…
As long Russian military is unable to control skies over the Europe it’s not a threat for us and their air forces performance in Ukraine suggests they would fail against western air forces.
Europe needs more air-to-ground munitions instead of artillery shells.