The Guardian: leader europei per discutere dell’Ucraina che si uniscono automaticamente alla NATO in caso di violazione del cessate il fuoco russo

Form a voluntary European Alliance outside of the EU and NATO. You avoid Drumpf, and the pro-Russian EU states.

The Americans need to leave NATO or shut up.

oh for fucks sake. Nato no longer exists. I think both Vance and Hegseth made that very clear. We need to invest massively in our own defence now and stop relying on the US.

Here’s how this is gonna go down:

1. Most likely there will be no necessary unanimity in NATO to agree with such an arrangement. Several hold outs like US, Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkiye will likely refuse to such an arrangement.

2. Even if they do agree, in negotiations Russia is going to be extraordinarily cautious in agreeing with this for a ceasefire. Most likely they’re going to outright refuse this condition. Conflict will continue.

3. If Russia agrees:

A. There are other conditions Trump/US will agree with that permit Russia to save some sort of face to agree to this HUGE concession. These conditions will permit or aid in Russia’s mission in both delegitimizing Ukraine’ sovereignty and NATO’s ability to excersize force. IE: removing US forces from the Baltics, removal of sanctions, or legitimizing terrirtorial gains.

B. Time passes after such a ceasefire and Russia further integragrates Belarus into its control, licks their wounds and annexes Moldova. It’s an easy target, no third party guarantees and most probably nobody will stick their necks out for it especially to risk conflict with Russia. The image of Russia further encroachment into Europe with no forceful response further puts European seriousness for their own security into question.

C. Now is the time when Russia tests article 5 and invades Estonia under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians — after a period in which they fund paramilitary proxies and send arms into the nation to politically destabilize them. 

Both the beaurcracy and the many little previous cuts into the alliance’s effectiveness and legitimacy paralyzes any actions by member nations to act until it’s too late. 

D. Feedback loop, point of no return — article 5 is no longer taken seriously and thus the alliance is worthless.

Then after ceasefire breach nato start 5-10 year investigation who was breach ceasefire