Punturazione di opinione per imamoglu vs. Erdogan Presidential Race (ottobre 2024 – aprile 2025)

[News source](https://kisadalga.net/haber/gundem/erdogan-icin-haberler-kotu-fark-buyuyor-125030)

— My analysis —

Why did Erdogan go full dictatorship? That’s because he has no chance with prior propaganda instruments, government-sponsored trolls and media dominance. In 2023, Erdogan preferred to race against Kilicdaroglu, who was considered a weak candidate, as it’s always better to win through legitimate elections. Arresting your main rival is a single-shot bullet and it indeed has consequences.

And now here, Imamoglu, since his first appearance in 2019, has become the nightmare of Erdogan and the ruling elite. It eventually suggests good news – since 2002 to this day, the supreme leader has always enjoyed wide public support, particularly from the conservative rural/suburban electorate, but this time, contrary to the 2013 Gezi Park resistance, he lacks public support. Things have deteriorated since then, and the “average Turk” no longer desires Erdogan. 2025 protests are also participated by conservatives.

It means he will eventually have to concede defeat through elections – Turkey lacks natural resources, economy (all remarkable industries are held by the “furious minority” as Erdogan calls), and a new ideology to construct a new state as part of the cultural revolution – Islamic speech is just populism for a tiny percentage at this point. Even those who still vote for Erdogan wouldn’t abandon the “secular lifestyle” forcibly brought by Ataturk’s revolts. Ataturk somewhat failed in consolidating a democratic environment/tradition, yet the revolutions have large impact on daily life, which contradicts Erdogan’s dreams for an Islamic powerhouse.

At the end of the day, some surveys regarding Turkey are interesting – as a Muslim-majority country, meaning no Renaissance or Enlightenment, and in the middle of the Middle East where women were flogged in accordance with Sharia, just 100 years ago, around 30-35% of the population favors same-sex marriage. It equals to Slovakia, Hungary, or Latvia. And consider the ongoing Islamic agenda pushing for the past two decades. A democratic Turkey that allows free speech may thrive rapidly – in terms of both economy and society. I think outsiders often ignore Turkey’s potential. It’s still a remarkable regional power despite the mismanagement since 2002. Medium-term plausible policies would make it one of the epicenters of Europe.

Does it matter if Erdogan can simply jail his opponent or bend local laws to block competition?

WIsh there was a version of this graphic that goes from 0 to 100 or at least 0 to 70.

This poll does show what the people want, but will they be able to get it?

I know Erdogan wants to eliminate every possibility for him to not stay in power, and he has a lot of power now… is there any chance that Imagoglu will actually be out of prison when the election happens? Or any other candidate from that party in place of Imagoglu, I guess.

Which is nice, but I still do not see Imamoglu participating in the elections. Unfortunately.