“Chiaramente, l’Ucraina sta tenendo le carte” – Economista sul perché la pressione degli Stati Uniti non costringerà Kiev a concedere

From the article: If Ukraine’s military resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion stunned the world, its economic resilience in the face of a larger, better-equipped enemy is a lesser-known story of the war.

A combination of rapid state expansion, prudent monetary policy, active civil society in Ukraine, and crucial external funding from foreign partners since 2022 have helped Kyiv avoid the kind of catastrophic state collapse a war can trigger.

As a result, Ukraine is far from “doomed to defeat” — even if the U.S. under President Donald Trump pulls out of the peace process as it has recently signaled it could, says Dr. Luke Cooper, associate professor at the London School of Economics, in a recent report analyzing Ukraine and Russia’s economies as the war grinds on and negotiations to end it continue.

Russia, by contrast, is showing signs of economic strain. In addition to sanctions, a “splurge of subsidized, politically directed lending to favored firms — especially in the defense sector — alongside a radical tightening of monetary policy for the civilian economy, Russia appears to be heading for a credit crunch,” Cooper writes.

While that doesn’t necessarily spell the collapse of Russia’s economy, a series of looming crises could be changing Moscow’s calculations in the negotiation process.

The Kyiv Independent sat down with Cooper to discuss how Ukraine and Russia have reshaped their economies for war, what strengths and vulnerabilities each side faces, and how those realities are shaping peace talks.

Ukraine: developing the drone weapons technology of the future and producing other new conventional weapons systems.

Russia: placed a drone jammer on a donkey