Armen Chibukhchyan – Analisi ARTN 23-04-24 ||: Armen Chibukhchyan – Analisi nelle notizie ARTN 23-04-24

Armen again brings up the questionable clause in the recent Armenia – Azerbaijan declaration.

He points out that, not only he, but other analysts, who are closer to the government, also raised questions about that clause, and the fact that the two sides showed different maps.

He mentions. How Aliyev immediately used this agreement to make new demands (Aliyev brought up the need for a Zangezur corridor if we want a peace agreement).

He offers two possible solutions out of this situation. Either the parliament doesn’t pass this, or passes it without the questionable clause. Or, we run back to Blinken, with a mea culpa, and ask him to interfere. Because Armen states that this was a clear sign by us, of telling the US and the EU “us two got this, you guys stay out”.

He also mentions the recent Pashinyan interview with the British press and analysts. Where the journos asked pretty direct questions, even going so far as stating that “don’t you think this Russo Azeri plan isn’t leading to peace”, to which Pashinyan gave a muddy response, and another muddy response, that added up to “no it’s ok” when they asked if he would like if UK would use BP influence on Aliyev to calm him down. Also he gave a muddy response to the question of “don’t you want to press the return of Armenians back to NK issue”.

All pointing to the theory that Pashinyan wants to keep the west at bay and handle as much as possible in the region.

Personally, as I said before, it’s a tough situation. I have listened to other respected experts, like Hovsep Khurshudyan today, who countered Armen’s alarm about the clause by saying something along the lines of “well if there is going to be war and Azeris are going to invade anyway, the clause won’t matter”, which is a very good point, however Armen wasn’t just mentioning that scenario, but scenarios with pressure through negotiations and trickery, which we saw Aliyev use today.

I think, getting the Americans and the Europeans back into the process is a must, and a good compromise would be to remove that clause. If Azeris decline, that would be a huge red flag of their true intent. However to do that, we need sponsors/guarantors. Pashinyan can’t be this dumb not to understand that we can’t do this by ourselves.