Scottish Labour Win Hamilton, Lark Hall e Stonehouse per sezione

A shocking result, frankly – and in numerous respects.

The SNP massively underperformed here. I had them as favourites, and the bookies had them at 1/8. I felt like in the current national environment, and given the campaign/attempt to squeeze Labour to oppose Reform, they would sneak it. Instead, they’ve almost dropped into *third*.

Reform, nothing else to say other than that is a very strong result for them. Even a small increase in their national polling in Scotland and they will be outright winning constituencies. In addition, they will have a strong spread so are likely to be very strong in the regional list in 2026. Any delusions from my fellow Scots about them not being a serious force here are now buried. They could very well target official opposition next year at this rate.

Labour, nothing spectacular but a good night for them given the circumstances. The narrative was very much SNP v Reform in the last couple of weeks, but they’ve managed to stand still and win the seat as a result. If they can rally back some support then the SNP may be at slight risk of losing even minority rule next year.

All this points to a very interesting and very bitter contest between Labour, Reform and the SNP for next years election. Many constituencies across the central belt will follow this pattern and be a tight three-way contest and all parties will be fairly strong in the list vote. Two things are clear: Reform are a serious force in Scotland now and secondly, they are taking votes from everyone. Labour, the Tories and the SNP are all shedding votes to them in significant numbers.