Il primo anno di un’Irlanda unita potrebbe costare 3 miliardi di euro
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddz32rmd9no
di rossitheking
Il primo anno di un’Irlanda unita potrebbe costare 3 miliardi di euro
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddz32rmd9no
di rossitheking
46 commenti
It would cost way more than that.
>Depending on economic growth, it suggests Northern Ireland would end its need for a subsidy in five to nine years.
Government cutting subsidies?
_[Pause for laughter]_
>However Dr Esmond Birnie suggests Professor Doyle is minimising the assumed financial costs of a “United Ireland”
>He said: “Prof Doyle, as in his 2021 ARINs article, rather optimistically assumes that the UK government would both meet all public sector pension obligations and release NI from its pro rata share of UK public debt.”
>He describes the report’s funding requirements under different future growth scenarios as “not all that convincing.”
>”It would be desirable if NI moved on to a higher growth path but chronic under-performance in the NI economy suggests some of these things are not easily changed.”
>”Major constitutional change is neither a necessary or sufficient condition of improving economic performance and this report does not provide evidence that a United Ireland per se would spur performance,” he added.
and that’s just for wee Terry
That seems like a bargain.
United Ireland needs to be drawn out over 30 years with gradual changes each year. Plenty of time for discussions and compromises and with people given time to adapt to the new situation.
By the end of the transition, anyone who was an adult during the troubles will be deceased, anyone who is an adult now will be in their 50s-70s and a whole new generation will have grown up knowing this is going to happen.
Can’t have a Brexit type situation where 100 years of establishment is dismantled in 2 years with no plans for what will replace it.
It would be a long term investment. We’ve spent more on less.
Didn’t we just spend that much on a hospital?
Is this another one of those estimates that is lowballing the cost because it assumes the UK will continue to contribute after Irish unification?!
I would be sceptical of the 3 billion figure. That’s probably a totally best case estimation, whenever bureaucrats, officials and politicians get involved we get shit like the small bike shed that costs half a million and other even more inefficient stuff.
ok
Sure apple will cover that.
I’m still voting for it because the pros outweigh the cons long term. Some things u can’t put a price on.
Just get the Collison’s to pay. In exchange, we’ll rename the North “Ulster, brought to you by Stripe”
One county at a time to ease the strain
What is the yearly cost of not being unified? Like we send 70-100 million each year in cross boarder initiatives as is.
>He said: “Prof Doyle, as in his 2021 ARINs article, rather optimistically assumes that the UK government would both meet all public sector pension obligations and release NI from its pro rata share of UK public debt.”
This is the fundamental issue about the cost. The Irish Government would save a lot of money if the Brits are generous, but they have no reason to be so. In fact, they can drive a hard bargain because they know how much a United Ireland means to Nationalists.
Imagine if there was a Sinn Féin led Government negotiating for a United Ireland and the British Government said they would only allow it if Ireland took full responsibility for the pension debt. Would Sinn Féin say no? Could they walk away from the table without getting a deal? Realistically, they would have to agree to whatever is offered (or their base would revolt) which gives Britian every incentive to drive a hard bargain.
Its all nonsense until negotiations happen. There was a report not long ago that said it was 20bn a year, now its 3bn a year. Yes, that 20bn figure includes the 10bn a year that the UK uses to pay Northern Irish debt and pension deficits and Yes, that 20bn figure doesn’t include higher tax take on wages and pensions but theres a load of costs to running a country and reports are cherry picking what they want to serve whoever’s agenda they serve.
If we believed it was actually 3bn a year, it would be like inviting the Trojan horse in. After year 1, it could be “wellllll actually, the cost for year 1 was 25bn but we expect it be down after year 2” and after year 10 the cost is a multiple of what everyone thought it could be. It will be typical Irish government plamásing.
Thought it was going to cost 20 billion a year? Guess they’ve had to revise down that (fabricated) figure.
This is getting downvoted the looks of it but it’s not a negatively frame article. The first line says the report states it’s well within what can be afforded. Not sure why it’s being downvoted.
Who believes this pie in the sky nonsense? Reunification cost Germany the guts of **two trillion** euros over its lifetime so far, and Western Germany bore the cost of 90% of that expense. Our reunification would cost significantly more than 3Bn euros, and taxpayers in the Republic would be the ones ponying up.
The Germans paid solidarity tax of between 7.5% and 5% for 20 years. For everyone who complains about cost of living on this sub, are you seriously willing to pay a shedload of extra tax for half your working life for no material benefit to you?
> It also suggests that not enough attention has been given to any potential growth if Northern Ireland was back in the EU.
All these studies assume that NI is going to flourish in a UI. I wonder what that’s based on? Irelands performance since we joined the EU? The world is a very different place now, I’m not convinced that can be repeated with today’s geopolitics.
Cheap
It’s only the price of a hospital to buy a country. Like buying New York for beads
Won’t somebody please think of all the cheaper second hand cars we could get
We’ve spent crazy money on stupider things.
It’s not like we have a cushy 15 billion fund stashed away from the Apple, Google and Meta tax debacle
Worth
That’s just 4 bike sheds
Is that the net cost of switching to an NHS model and paying off all the leeches on our current health service?
Stop subsidising Ukrainians there’s the money saved right there
Well worth it! And as expected, check some online comments, and you can see some FFG are speaking out against it. Their parties wasted a lot more money than this. A United Ireland will help everyone on the island in the long-run.
So? That’s fk all.
Follow that shit up with big engineering projects like road and rail links and you’d stimulate a lot of economic activity to counter balance it.
That’s just to sort out ballymena.
In the context of our overall budget and revenue it’s not a lot of money.
Also noting that a third of that €3bn is new investment to bring NI up to a standard with the rest of the island, it seems like a very reasonable investment.
Be tome though.
>Public sector wages in the Republic are on average 48% higher than those in Northern Ireland – impacting 29% of the entire NI labour force.
Incredible really. Best paid public sector in Europe. And a big driver surely for 29% of NI labour force to want a UI.
This is assuming the UK is happy to pay out for pensions and other costs while Ireland keeps all the tax receipts.
Ordinarily that would seem optimistic but I’m sure you could talk Starmer into paying you €6bn per year to take it.
Sounds cheap.
So 2-3 years of IPAS money? I’ll take reunification in a heart beat first
How much was spent to bail out the corrupt bankers in the crash? United Ireland needs to happen.
Ireland just surrendered €150bn to Israel’s displacement projects.
Why would anyone care about the BBC’s opinion on how much it will costs to surrender Ireland to Britain?
The DUP and the Glenanne gang running the entire island is demanding our own extermination.
Why would Britain pay for pensions without ongoing tax receipts? That is illogical.
Didn’t we have like €23bn that the government had no idea on what ro use?
How many bike sheds is that?
What’s that in bike sheds?
*Assuming the first year starts on 30 December and cost is based on a calendar year.