Islanda, Montenegro o Albania – Quale paese si unirà per primo all’UE?

In predictions about which country will be the next to join the European Union, those who mention the name of Montenegro think they win the bet, considering that it has been negotiating for years and has advanced more than all other candidate countries.

Others are positioned by Albania, which is moving rapidly towards Brussels.

Others think it will be Moldova – an ambitious and reform-oriented state.

However, the correct answer may be Iceland.

The intentions of the administration of US President Donald Trump to annex the Danish territory of Greenland, and the idea of a trade war between security guarantor, the United States of America, and its largest trading partner, the EU, have created concern on this island in the North Atlantic.

Iceland’s current government, which came to power last year, has announced that a referendum will be held before 2027 to restart talks with Brussels on EU membership.

Polls suggest that a majority would support resuming talks.

And this is not the first time Iceland has been in this position.

This country was hit hard by the global financial crisis in 2008, when three major banks went bankrupt.

EU membership – especially the Eurozone – was seen as a way to avoid the crisis, and negotiations with the European bloc began in 2010.

The talks were suspended three years later by a newly elected right-wing government. At the time, the Eurozone countries were also in dire straits from the financial crisis, so joining the group, and adopting the single currency, was not seen as a life-saving step.

During those three years of accession talks, Reykjavik has opened most of the 33 chapters and closed 11 of them.

By comparison, Montenegro – at the top of the countries aiming for the EU – has managed to close seven more chapters after more than a decade of negotiations.

“Sovereign decision”
When EU officials believe that Iceland could complete the membership process – which is still valid – within a few years, they are not speaking without foundation.

This country is helped by the fact that it is part of the European Economic Area, which means that along with Norway and Liechtenstein, it already applies the rules of the European bloc’s internal market.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited the country last week and quickly made it clear that eventual future membership is “a sovereign decision made by the people here.”

“It’s not a topic I should comment on,” she said.

However, she added that “Iceland is familiar with and integrated into the EU market, the two sides have the same values, we know each other very well, and we have the same mindset – all of this is added value.”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a European diplomat familiar with these developments was even more direct.

“It would be good for a Western European country to join the EU, especially after Brexit,” he said.

“This would show that the club is still attractive.”

The integration process would proceed easily, considering that Iceland is richer than the EU average, and with a population of 300.000, it would be the smallest state in the EU, if it joins.

Although Brussels is officially staying away from the debate about this country’s EU membership, it is actually doing everything to bring it closer.

During her visit, von der Leyen pledged to review and potentially advance the current trade agreement.

It has signed another agreement to protect critical infrastructure that is essential to Iceland, such as undersea cables, and has launched negotiations on a new security and defense agreement that would increase cooperation against cyber and hybrid threats.

This partnership, which is expected to be finalized by the end of the year, is of particular importance to Iceland, which is aware of the need for cooperation in the field of security, especially given the fact that Russia and China are becoming increasingly active in the Arctic region.

The United States has also recently shocked this country, following the debates over Greenland, further strengthening the idea of EU membership, despite the fact that this country had left the bloc’s predecessor – the European Community – in 1985.

Although Washington has not made similar claims about Iceland, the level of nervousness on this island has increased, as the US is its security guarantor on behalf of NATO, through a bilateral agreement signed in 1951.

Therefore, Iceland is the only NATO member that does not have its own army and has no immediate plans to create one.

In 2006, the United States announced that it would continue to defend the island, but that its forces would not have a permanent presence there. That policy is still in effect, and a former American base in Keflavik continues to be a center for NATO exercises.

In all these developments, transatlantic trade tensions only add to the tension in Iceland.

Reykjavik wants Brussels to consult it on EU-US trade talks, but European officials have indicated they cannot make any promises in this regard without Iceland’s full membership.

And trade is precisely the topic that could fuel conflict in eventual accession negotiations, especially when it comes to agriculture and fishing – the island’s two main industries.

This is why these two industries are excluded from current trade agreements.

There are concerns that the EU’s general agricultural policy could severely harm Icelandic farmers by flooding the island with cheap products from other member states.

Fishing is an even more delicate topic.

Reykjavik proudly claims that its management of fishery resources is superior to that of Brussels.

Iceland is therefore reluctant to give up its exclusive fishing rights in over 300 kilometers of the economic zone with the Danish, Dutch, Irish, Spanish and French fleets.

Then there is commercial whaling, which is still permitted in Icelandic waters, despite EU pressure for a global moratorium.

All of this is believed to influence why the majority of political parties in the Icelandic Parliament are against EU membership.

Although polls show that the population likes the idea of resuming talks with Brussels, residents seem to be unsure whether they want to join the European bloc.

In Brussels, officials remain hopeful, although they see obstacles in the way, because Iceland is a small but very independent country, and it finds it difficult to voluntarily give up its sovereignty.

Montenegro obviously. It’s a no brainer

Montenegro obviously

Iceland 1st; Montenegro 2nd; Albania 3rd…all by 2030. In the following decade Moldova, Ukraine, N. Macedonia and maaaaaybe Norway.

Please, if Iceland do it the króna will be more secure and the banks will stop robbing us.

(Do you know the best of the best mortgage you can get, makes you pay each borrowed crown 2,1x? And that a massive amount of students have student loans that are “binded to inflation” but are actually artificially inflated every year to the point that most of people will never finish paying them?)

I know many doctors who pay since 5-10 years, technically they paid 50-60% of what they borrowed, but they still need to pay even more than the original price. I even know a fiscalist lawyer (so… The specialist in that field) who just retired and still pays his student loan. He says it is made to last until death.

The EU tops these kind of predatory behaviours.

None of them for some time. We need to abolish the rest of the veto power before accepting anybody. After that, very likely Montenegro.

New Zealand

All at once

Iceland for sure! Next in line are UK, Switzerland and Norway : )

If Iceland decides, they could probably complete the process extremely fast, like in a couple of years max. If not, Montenegro will probably be the one.

None, hopefully. We need to reform the voting process before we add more members (and democratize the union more in general). A country of 600k should not be able to annull the desires of 100M+ people.

After that, I will welcome them with open arms.

If Iceland votes yes in a referendum, they’ll probably have a very short path into EU. Seeing that they pretty much already are in with EEA.

Montenegro.

Letting in Montenegro is like letting in Russia. Never met as many Russians as there, barely met a single person who spoke English.

Montenegro

Albania’s high muslim population (45%) will no doubt be a point of contention with some of Europe’s right wing powers so that might very well be the last of all the options.

Everybody forgot about Ukraine already?

Iceland can join, but PLEASE no Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Moldova, Macedonia, Bosnia etc. No need to create additional Hungaries.

Montenegro 🇲🇪