Pensieri sugli esercizi russi in Bielorussia. + Il più recente BTR-22 russo sulla foto con nuovi segni di identificazione individuati a Grodno.
https://i.redd.it/ypnykgd5jzof1.jpeg
di Illyuha_Pampuha
Pensieri sugli esercizi russi in Bielorussia. + Il più recente BTR-22 russo sulla foto con nuovi segni di identificazione individuati a Grodno.
https://i.redd.it/ypnykgd5jzof1.jpeg
di Illyuha_Pampuha
12 commenti
So exercises “West-2025” started, and will go until 16 semptember. With this I want to share some thoughts.
We have a very clear indicator that will help reveal Russia’s further intentions already this month. These are the actions of the contingent in Belarus after September 16.
On February 10–20, 2022, the exercises “Union Resolve – 2022” were held there, after which the Russian contingent remained in Belarus and, four days later, launched an offensive on Kyiv.
By the way, on the eve of this, there was a meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping.
On July 15 – August 2, 2008, Russia held the “Caucasus-2008” exercises in the North Caucasus, rehearsing an offensive against Georgia. The contingent stayed, and the offensive began five days later.
Both operations were accompanied by large-scale Russian information-psychological operations, the creation of an informational background, and provocations and casus belli to justify invasion.
Recently, we have heard many delusional statements from Russians claiming that Finland, Lithuania, Poland, and others are preparing aggression against Russia, and that Russia will never attack them. Amusing.
The closure of airspace with Russia/Belarus by neighboring states, the complete sealing of the border by Poland, the deployment of the “Eastern Sentinel” mission there, and 40,000 Polish troops at the border – all of this can be played up for provocations and as an informational backdrop.
If in the coming week we see rising hysteria about “aggressive Lithuania or Poland,” and after September 16 the Russian contingent remains in Belarus, then already the following week, or at most by the end of the month, further steps can be expected.
Exactly which ones – a large-scale or limited invasion, intensified missile and drone strikes, an intervention by a small contingent with the occupation of a piece of territory and political posturing – is not yet clear. But Putin is now clearly more brazen than at almost any time in the past four years.
By the way, on the eve of this, there was a meeting with Xi Jinping. 🙂
We need to mobalise troops, we cannot rule out Russia isn’t about to send troops to seize the Suwalki Gap, claim the Russian troops are just “Europeans fed up with the corrupt EU” then have Trump exert political pressure on NATO states to allow the invasion to go unopposed
We know the Russian “doomsday” radio station was active and we know it issued classified orders just prior to the drone attack on Poland so it’s possible more orders were issued than just the drone strikes
Paint on vehicles like this ruins their camouflage and requires expensive repaints to properly remove them. You don’t just paint obvious symbols on vehicles for fun, Russia is planning an attack and if not for the Suwalki Gap then clearly to open a northern front from Belarus into Ukraine
Adidas stripes …
They probably sold gas for vodka and its stranded there
[https://publicmedievalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Fig.-1-Lurtz.png](https://publicmedievalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Fig.-1-Lurtz.png)
No doubt the good tech and vehicles will be on display all over the place.
On another note
[https://defence-blog.com/russia-simulates-missile-strike-on-poland/](https://defence-blog.com/russia-simulates-missile-strike-on-poland/) Russia placed those Iskander ballistic missile systems, on a highway leading to Poland (Kaliningrad Oblast) and very close to said border.
Also, more drones in Romanian and polish sky.
Bet it has no armor on top stronger then the lid on sardine can
People are joking but a new tactical sign? This looks serious. I would advise wait and see if in coming days could be more vehicles with this sign spotted and if their army will stay near Polish or Lithuanian border after 16th september
Wont last 10 minutes on the battlefield so its all good anyways
Posturing and trying to intimidate NATO. They know if it came to a direct conflict, they would lose hard. Just like pre-Ukraine war, they are trying to cultivate an aura of toughness and strength, trying to deter NATO from joining the war or sending further support to Ukraine.
This is actually far more serious provocation than a few drones in Poland, Russia actually brought nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles to wave dick right in the face of Europe.
Truly shows how unserious Europe is, that it lives in a reality it conjured. News cycle decides that decoy drones are a serious incident so it occupies headlines for days, millions dollars fighters are used to shoot them down, article 4 is invoked, and France is sending fighters over. This is more serious but it doesn’t bring as much traffic, so it is only getting *some* coverage.
It is as if what Russia thinks doesn’t matter anymore. A few duct-taped drones flying into Polish airspace is framed as if Russia is showing maximum aggression (even though it could be drones getting jammed and fly off course), and yet when Russian are ACTUALLY showing provocation intent, the response is “watching closely” and redditors are mocking them instead.