Ipotetici intenzioni di voto per il 1 ° round di elezioni legislative francesi
https://i.redd.it/skintf8jtgtf1.png
di Yamakuzy
Ipotetici intenzioni di voto per il 1 ° round di elezioni legislative francesi
https://i.redd.it/skintf8jtgtf1.png
di Yamakuzy
9 commenti
So no changes for the RN, the Macronists are bleeding voters to LR, and the left is more divided
Assuming LR and Reconquettevoters swing more towards RN than Ensemble voters may give up and swing left to prevent RN, it seems like the prospects for the left are bleak?
Furthermore, uniting behind LFI at the forefront seems to risk doing more harm than good?
To the French people here: Is it still the topic of immigration driving this, or what are the other deciding factors?
So the uk gets shit on for reform being at 31%
Meanwhile france is looking at 33% for an even further right party and they get nothing
RN at 33% is in line with their 2024 result and slightly below what might have been expected. The united center-left/far-left bloc at 29% also tracks its previous outcome quite closely. The only notable shift is from Macron’s alliance toward the Republicans, along with a modest recovery for Reconquête. Though the latter’s electorate is notoriously volatile and the party itself would probably serve more as a spoiler in legislative elections.
Please note that in France, these elections are held in two rounds per constituency, with the top two candidates and those who have obtained more than 12.5% of the votes (not voters, but electors) qualifying for the second round.
It is not at all uncommon for a candidate to come out on top in the first round with 1/3 of the votes and then lose in the second round by failing to obtain 50%+1 of the votes. This is even something of a specialty of the far right, which has failed systematically until now. That doesn’t mean it will be the same this time around, but we shouldn’t just look at the percentages from the first round.
Basically RN is the first party but it doesn’t have the numbers to govern alone
The Left trcnically has the same level of support as long as it stays united. Not impossible and not easy at the same time.
Melenchon is a dickhead, but 10% of the vote means thecrest of the left can’t simply ignore him
Centrist forces are dying and sooner or later will have to decide which side to pick between tight and left
What’s stopping the moderate left, the Macronists and the Republicains from forming a coalition? Cause if they don’t, they’ll just lose more and more to RN and LFI. They’re all under attack from the extremes, so it’s time they put their differences aside and act responsibly for the country.
To comply with the rules:
Link to graph – [https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/p/lecornu-resigns-france-political-chaos-macron-le-pen-destitution](https://www.frenchdispatch.eu/p/lecornu-resigns-france-political-chaos-macron-le-pen-destitution)
Link to data used – [https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2025/septembre/9976-leg-toluna-hi-challenges-7-septembre.pdf](https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2025/septembre/9976-leg-toluna-hi-challenges-7-septembre.pdf)