“Rimangono tre o quattro mesi.” Putin è stato avvertito di una grave crisi economica entro l’estate.

Russia’s military economy, pumped up by trillions in spending on state defense orders and payments to those recruited to the front, is approaching breaking point.

Government financial officials have warned President Vladimir Putin that an economic crisis could erupt in the country in the coming months,  The Washington Post reports, citing a source in direct contact with these officials.

According to a WaPo source, the warnings to Putin are becoming increasingly urgent, and officials believe the crisis could arrive as early as summer. Putin has been warned that without further tax increases, the budget deficit will continue to grow due to declining oil and gas revenues, while the banking system is under increasing pressure from high interest rates and large loans to finance the war, WaPo reports.

The crisis is “three to four months away,” a Moscow businessman told the publication. According to him, there are increasing signs of inflation far exceeding the 6% declared by the authorities, despite the Central Bank of Russia’s record-tight policy with a key rate of 16%. The forced layoffs of thousands of workers and the record wave of restaurant and bar closures in Moscow since the pandemic also point to a future crisis, a WaPo source said.

After two years of a military boom, when GDP grew by more than 4% annually, the Russian economy fell into a severe depression. Last year, growth slowed to 1%, 20 of the 28 civilian industries began to decline, and companies—from small to large—were experiencing massive debt repayment problems. According to the Central Bank, more than 10 trillion rubles of loans on bank balance sheets have become problematic. Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) warned.

in February that the country is effectively experiencing a latent banking crisis. Despite two waves of tax increases, the Russian budget could suffer an astronomical deficit of 10 trillion rubles this year due to reduced oil purchases by India and discounts of nearly $30 per barrel (according to non-public government estimates). And if the lost oil and gas revenues are offset by the National Welfare Fund, almost all of the fund’s available funds—4.1 trillion rubles—will have to be spent.

EU measures against the “shadow fleet” could pose a new “serious threat” to the Kremlin, a source close to Russian diplomats told WaPo. In January, 14 EU countries  signed an agreement on joint action against tankers flying false flags, effectively threatening to close the Baltic Sea—the main channel for exporting oil—to Russia. As part of the 20th sanctions package, the EU wants to completely ban maritime transport of Russian barrels and related services, which would threaten half of oil exports, WaPo reports.

“This is not only a threat to the economy, but also a political question of how Russia can allow this to happen without losing its political reputation,” a diplomatic source told the publication. Furthermore, Donald Trump could impose new energy sanctions if he believes “Russia is sabotaging the peace process,” he added.

It’s been 3 to 4 months away for 3 years now, but nothing can last forever. Let’s hope the boy isn’t crying wolf for clicks again.

Trump sure has impeccable timing, what with bringing up more lax sanctions…

Please, let it be as bad as it gets and all the borders to EU stay fully closed so they can really enjoy the fruits of their own labor.

Yes, I’m done with sympathy towards the entire country. Let them drag the entire duma, propaganda machine and their staffers along the streets.

i used to think that this constant promise of Russian collapse was some sort of western propaganda to worry the russians

but after 4 years now i can see that the only thing it accomplished is to make the west lazy in its preparation and underprepared to stop them

I’ll believe it when it happens.

We’ll see if it’s just bs talks or not, we’ve yet to see non bs talk from Putin

I’ve been reading these clickbaity headlines since the start of the war. So it’s been 4 years that Russia has been defaulting after 3 months.

Wonder how long it will be before the US steps in to “lend them a hand.”

So why wouldn’t Ukraine hold out till then or badger for a better deal?

I was talking with a friend last year about this and I mused that very probably what would happen is Russia would so overextend itself that regardless of what happens it inflicts a mortal economic wound on itself.

Putin has tied his entire legacy to this war. It has gone very, very badly for him.

I think we’re there.

Russia can’t take Ukraine at this point.

Russia can’t even take territory that would make what it’s spent worth it.

The best case scenario is Russia has to sell itself even deeper into debt to China in order to dig itself out of the financial hole it’s in.

That assumes China is even willing or able to do that.

I don’t see Europe throwing Russia any lifelines unless Russia permanently withdraws from Ukraine.

Russia isn’t going to do that because Putin can’t have nothing to show for all of this.

So, basically, unless Putin is no longer part of the equation Russia is really, really fucked.

Either the country becomes even more of a Chinese satellite or it goes bust. Those are the only two realistic options on the table right now.

As for the US: I don’t see Trump throwing Putin any lifelines. Certainly not this year – not with the midterms on the line.

If the midterms go the way they are shaping up to go then there is no way in hell the US loans Russia any money.

Putin can do anything he wants… as long as oil prices are high. Currently, things are really, really bad and there isn’t a sign that oil prices will rise. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin starts selling off Russian territory to China to pay for the war. Xi Jinping has Putin by the balls and he will milk him dry.

I am not overstating when I say that the meetings and talks Putin has with his cronies right now are probably the most interesting ones since the beginning of the invasion and probably the most interesting ones in this century.

Been reading these headlines for 4 years now.

Remind me in 5 months. They will be fine. The whole country will eat potatoes, but they will be so proud they gained 0.5% extra territory and that they have nukes. Look at NK, they had a famine here and there, and still keep on going.

This is how Russia works

does anyone have a translation to english of the article? What does economic crisis mean? Does it mean a recession? Putin does not care if Russians go unemployed. Makes the military a better option. He is a dictator.

Can I remind you how BS it was, like five months from now? Oh nevermind, no one gives a shit

We’ve been hearing this ever since the war started and it’s never happened. I wish it was true but I’m not just going to think “it’s different this time”. Russia has been months away from economic ruin for almost four years now.

We all hope.

These predictions don’t really work, we’ve heard them before. They would’ve indeed already collapsed a long time ago with their own economy, but china has been bankrolling them more and more. Iirc china now funds about half of their war spending, it’s fucking insane.
As soon as china stops, it’s over for the orcs. But who knows what china will do.

I wonder if it will spur major changes or change in leadership. Or will they go North Korea style? I am not sure if the people would accept that…but I’m not sure if it matters

Oh stop teasing us. Let it collapse already

Can’t wait for the summer!

Russia wasted their future with this war. Instead of develop the country they decided to destroy it. 
Instead of producing movies, music, spread the positive aspects of it’s culture around the world like US did with Hollywood, they chose to destroy any shred of positivity and hope we had about it’s future role in the world

I hate to be a pessimist, but haven’t they been predicting this since essentially the start of the war? I remember articles predicting the Russian economy would collapse by June of 2022

Trump will bail him out by then