Il sogno di Dubai è finito. Gli espatriati irlandesi non possono più sospendere la loro incredulità – The Irish Times

It’s hard to see how the Gulf’s post-petroleum future survives this.

The whole thing was based on the fact that they could invest with a longer time horizon, but further development (which is necessary to replace oil) requires sums of capital that necessitate international investment.

That requires stability.

The problem for Dubai has always been that it is hugely geopolitically vulnerable. It has to import it’s food. It is unlivable without aircon. It relies on desalinisation plants for its water.

That was ok when it was backed up by American security guarantees – but those look pretty flimsy with the power that was to guarantee your security starts a war that endangers it.

I wouldn’t like to be living in (or investing in) what is essentially a moon base where people are lobbing rockets at it.

The US might bring this to a conclusion decisively – meaning that they someone get unconditional surrender and somehow install a leader who can subdue any civil war. More likey is a long period of Iranian instability if the US wins.

It doesn’t take much for an actor in that civil conflict to continue sending drones at the airport. They don’t even need to hit very often.

I’ve 2 friends over there with no intention of coming home

I mean, did you see any other possible ending?

Immense wealth injected from a single sector and/or external capitals is fragile.

Any other countries come to mind?

Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair