Ciao ragazzi, un’altra domanda di storia alternativa. Come sarebbe una guerra tra Jugoslavia e Albania se combattessero negli anni ’70?

Well, first off Albania would lose in a conventional conflict, of that there is little doubt.

If this is the early/mid 70’s the Chinese-Albanian relationship would be good, but that would not really aid much beyond perhaps Chinese protests in the political world.

While Yugoslavia would probably manage to occupy most of the country, it would cost them a lot, maybe it would be their vietnam since Albania’s policy was total defense in the case of an invasion.

I am not sure if there were stockpiled chemical weapons in the 70’s, but they would most likely be used in this event.

The albanian airforce would probably only give some token resistance before losing the ability to contest the air, what with having mostly chinese Mig knockoffs.

What happens after is arguably more interesting however.

Occupation would be impossible, unless yugoslavia decided to go insane and start to ethnically cleanse albanians in an industrial scale.

Kosovo would probably be much more turbulent, Sino-Soviet conflict may escalate compared to OTL (though I doubt China would really ‘try’ to do much beyond supporting Albania with a few arms in this event), the soviets would use this event either to curry favor with Yugoslavia and drag them back in their sphere of influence or pressure them, since this is the 70’s I doubt any western power would send any sort of military aid to either side.

When all is said and done however, I believe Yugoslavia would break up much earlier, either because Tito would be seen as crazy and lose his grip on power, or somehow die earlier.

In this hypothetical I believe Albania would somehow gain Kosovo, as it would simply be too costly to keep it when the entire albanian ethnic population has a severe hatred of Slavs (in this scenario).

All in all, the balkans would be more fucked than they already are.

P.S. this is all the ramblings of someone who does not really know what they are talking about, but likes Alt-His scenarios.

Bunkers would be put to the test.

I’m just disappointed we never got to see all those tiny bunkers in action.

It was going to be Vietnam 2.0 for Yugoslavia.

As early as the 50s, according to CIA files, Yugoslavia was drafting up plans on possible attacks on Albania and what that would look like.

Anyone can look it up, it’s called the R-7, drafted by the Yugoslav military in the early 50s, by Chief of Staff Peko Dapčević, Svetozar Vukmanović and Kosta Nađ.

It hinged on organizing Albanian refugees and enemies of the system through a hybrid warfare approach to attack from Kosovo and draw other dissidents along the way. It never intended for a head on military invasion for a myriad of reasons.

For one, invasions routes into Albania are very predictable. You either come north from Shkodra and through the western plains; northeast from Kosovo into the passes and gorges that lead to central Albania or you hug the Shkumbin River from the east and make your way through the passes into Elbasan and Tirana. For anyone who’s crossed those roads, even today, they are very windy and cross through narrow passes and gorges.

Aside from the terrain, the Albanian Army had proved effective in checking Greek incursions in 1949 and according to western observers, its small border units were actually quite aggressive and effective. It was particarly unwise to go for a head-on confrontation even that early on.

By the 1970s, we’re talking about an entirely different force, fairly well-equiped as the Chinese were much more “generous” than the Soviets when it came to weapons, with a relatively modern air force, large armor and artillery divisions and an officer corps still unaffected by the purges that would come, depending on what year we’re talking about. Most importantly of all, it had spent years preparing for this very scenario and was in no way toothless compared to its neighbors.

So, I don’t think an invasion in the 1970s would be successful and even if it managed to break through the border regions, it would probably lead to a Vietnam scenario that would be extremely detrimental to Yugoslavia as a whole. Ethnic tensions would flare up earlier. How would the Slovenes and Croats for example, react to their men being sent to die in the Albanian mountains? If the Yugoslavs deemed it unfavorable to win through a head-on military campaign in the 1950s, they sure weren’t going to attempt it against a much better prepared adversary in the 1970s.

In 1981, following the students’ protests in Kosovo, both armies were actually deployed across the border from each other. The Yugoslavs were gauging Albanian preparedness, while the latter mobilized a 70.000 strong “voluntary action” force to, supposedly, clear up the trenches and mountain paths. In reality, it was a show of force that subsequently forced the Yugoslavs to back down as well.