Supponiamo che magicamente ogni unità russa si ritiri dall’Ucraina, quanto tempo ci vorrebbe per recuperare il terreno reso impossibile da coltivare nell’est a causa della guerra?
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di Shipsarecool1
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26 commenti
I hate to break it, but they’re still discovering WWI bombs in France. Hopefully, with new technology and the fact they were dropped recently, it won’t take decades to deal with them.
I dont think its going to be as long as what went down Post WW1 and WW2…. As with automation, drones, improved imaging, (IR, LIDAR etc) and AI, its likely to be cleared at record speeds, though I cant put a timeframe on that, (could still be decades)
If they pulled out, say, because Pooty died of tea without any order at all? 10 years. You’ll be finding them here and there after, but I think massive demining operations would be pushed by every EU country to help. Your demining operation will bring a new generation of demining equipment.
I googled it, and AI said 30 years. I say fuck that.
About 20 years max
Years to remove mines and I exploded ordinance
What about shrapnel and other metal and plastic fragments all over? Would that affect anything?
In about a few months the farmland would be toiled again
A large bomb was found and detonated in England last week, 81 years after the end of WW2. Its a frequent occurrence in Europe.
I think the biggest problem will be the tiny anti-personnel bomblets that are scattered across the eastern border region. As someone else stated, they are easily covered by grasses, making it very difficult to discover and make safe.
Farming is important but Ukraine is unique with it’s quality of soil. Ukraine outperforms other European countries without big investment in farming technology, and nothing will change about that even if less territory is available.
The ordnance and chemicals from WW1 are to this day being removed from north eastern fracne. It will never fully stop.
A truely herculean effort for mine sweeping and other explosives removal would be needed along such an insanely wide front of devastation to make it “relatively” safe. just like Vietnam or germany bombs wll just continue being found again and again.
Something of particularl note is the south. Crimea was cut of from its artificial water supply since 2014, and southern kherson has been cut for a few years by now too, since the russian bastards decided to blow up the dam that allows that irrigation system. These regions would need a while and massive infrastructure projects to be repaired to come back online the way they used to be.
And another massive issue is just the dead or replaced farmers. Someone needs to actually tend to the land that whole concept bodes ill for south-eastern Ukraine
Roughly 90% of the bombs and mines will be found and detonated/removed within 10 years. The last mine/bomb wont be found in our lifetime.
Their still finding unexploded ordinance from WWI over 100 years after the fact.
I think within 10 years 99% will be restored. the last 1% will probably take 100 years or longer….
This is basically a thing where most of the land can be reclaimed quickly (as indeed most of the liberated land has been), but the heavily mined areas, the fortifications, the greyzones, will take much longer.
An advantage Ukraine will have in this operation is total expertise with unmanned vehicles, both for actively demining and operating farm machinery in land which is probably safe but it’s hard to be completely confident. If you plough the land with an armored remote control tractor it can probably be regarded as safe to use.
Pollution around burnt tank for example is going to be hard to remove.
between 10 and 20 years of intensive work
How long something takes is wholly dependent on the amount of resources you put into actually doing it.
People cite the WWI battlefields a lot and I think that that is just a tad bit erroneous. WWI was a long time ago, the munitions were different and our detection and disposal methods were extremely primitive. The ratio of large caliber artillery shells with crappy fuzes and the huge mass barrages churning up the earth guaranteed that huge quantities of unexploded ordnance would get buried at depths significant enough that they could stay there undetected for extreme amounts of time, enough for the topsoil to heal completely over them. Also, post-WWI Europpe was devastated economically so just writing off the worst affected areas rather than spend even more money(and lives) to clear them properly was probably always going to be the path taken.
And yes, Ukraine has seen a lot of bombs. A lot. Too many. But the nature of the bombs are different, particularly in the last few years when artillery has given way to drones. Modern fuzes do not fail to detonate nearly as often as back in the day, even crappy Cold War era Soviet stuff. Mines lay on the surface or very close to it instead of getting buried deep, so with modern imaging technology they should be far easier to detect, and detection is the number one problem.
The number two problem is, once you have detected them, how do you get rid of them? That is where I think Ukraines burgeoning drone industry is going to find its postwar future. With proper funding the innovation the war has sparked can be carried over into mass automated or semi-automated UXO detection and clearing with specialized tools. The economic incentive is definitely there for Ukraine to get this valuable arable land back, and combined the innovation in the drone sector with Ukraines longstanding track record in making large agricultural and earth moving/processing machinery and a future where this land gets cleared much faster than any battlefield before it in huma history can be glimpsed.
Well if it were done the conventional way – decades?
But with a little lateral thinking – Like as part of the reparations Ruzzian soldiers have to all get into one long line across the countryside. Then all walk slowly forward towards Ruzzia. Doing what we call in Australia – An Emu Bob.
This way they can pick up all the rubbish they caused to be there. And if they happen to walk onto a mine. Well free fertiliser and one less mine to be dug up in the future!
And my way would take days. Maybe weeks?
Win! Win!
Fields can be initially cleared in years to decades, but it will take centuries before everything is gone
Generations.
Only farmland? At very least two-three years. There are a lot of explosives
Everything? Decades
Unfortunately, to quote Perun “Well, it depends”
Large scale defensive, battlefield shaping minefields will be the easiest to cleanup. Western style armies do a good job of recording minefields, and what mines were laid where. This will aid in the clearance effort.
Drone and artillery dispensed mines will be harder to cleanup as they weren’t deployed pre-emptively and there won’t be the same level of record keeping on their use.
Cluster munitions and things like the PFM-1s will remain scattered about the countryside for decades to come.
Large scale UXO like missile warheads, big gravity bombs, shaheeds, and the like tend to be marked and reported (especially in rear areas) and dealt with by EOD when it becomes possible and prudent to deal with them.
That applies to what Ukraine has been doing. I’m confident that whatever the Russians have been doing is probably a total shit show and there’s probably little record keeping, and a lot of the people who would know are dead now.
The truly horrendous “no man’s land” areas will have to be thoroughly mine plowed and even then will continue to push up UXO for decades in the same way that European farmers still disc up shells from both world wars.
Part of the solution is going to be investment into armored cab tractors. Certain areas of the country will require mine plowing in the farm fields after each spring thaw for several years.
After WW1 there are still areas at the border in Belgium and France that can’t be used as farmland ever again. It is still a no go area in some places.
The Trench-Warfare and intense use of Artillerie contaminated the soil until today.
Seems like a job for APOPO’s mine sniffing rats.
Less than after any war before. The best techs in military area are created in Ukraine right know, even now drones, both land and air are used to get rid of mines on battlefield. Manufacturing a large scale of such drones isn’t that big of a problem when you don’t have to spend all money on defending form russia. Honestly im very optimistic about our potential after the war. The only problem that this after doesn’t seem to get even a little closer.
Ballpark guess, it would take 10 years to reach a 95% safety margin for all farmland. After that ten year point, you would still lose 2-7 farmers to unexploded ordinance per year for the next 20.