Vacanze in Spagna e Portogallo a rischio con migliaia di voli cancellati

Hotelaria vai começar a chorar 3..2..1…

(anda a suar ligeiramente como emigrante com viagem marcada a abrir as aplicações das companhias aéreas todos os dias)

Na verdade tem havido bastantes artigos destes na imprensa britânica, mas são sobretudo bastante click bait.

Começam a dizer que estão em risco, mas acabam com entrevistas a CEOs de companhias aéreas a dizer que está tudo bem e controlado e têm stock e cadeias de fornecimento de combustível. E todos os dias saem artigos nos vários jornais ingleses com “pode ser” “pode acontecer”, mas é isso – e como é um público que viaja bastante no verão, é excelente para os cliques e engagement.

É possível que preços aumentem e que alguns voos menos estratégicos sejam cancelados. Mas até ver, é só imprensa.

Edit: afinal vi agora outro artigo de uma fonte mais respeitável que constata que o preço do combustível de aviação duplicou. O que vai, a algum ponto causar uma mudança de preços – preços vão subir e voos vão vender menos. Mas em termos práticos, é esperar para ver, ainda hoje de manhã a minha newsletter de análise de preços deu-me um voo de ida e volta da Ryanair, partindo de onde vivo no Reino Unido para Faro (onde tenho família e visito), em Junho, por £58 (67€) – portanto não há de estar tão mau ainda.

Abraços

É agora que o Mário Ferreira vai investir em veleiros… 😉

“Oh no… anyway.” – seria a minha reação se não achasse que quem vai pagar por a merda do turismo não ter clientes vai ser o comum contribuinte, que paga sempre prejuízos mas nunca recebe dividendos.

Já estou mesmo a ver os responsáveis do turismo, hotelaria, restauração e “investidores” a fazerem choradeira para a comunicação social.

Tão capitalistas que são, mas em situações de aperto depressa se viram “socialistas” a pedir dinheiro público para compensar a treta de gestão que fazem.

Caso-me este ano e estou bem borradinho com as viagens, se isto cancela tudo vai ser um filme

Full article: Britain looks set to be one of the countries hardest hit by jet fuel shortages this summer, with warnings that millions more seats will be cut from airline schedules in May and June.

Several carriers, including Germany’s Lufthansa, have already [slashed schedules](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/airlines-forced-cancel-flights-amid-jet-fuel-shortages-summer-4379504?srsltid=AfmBOoqjh0OtYAjg5mcdn1y6vZoeXE7SmaKyH522PP2KYy5SfujgdEUq&ico=in-line_link) to save fuel, with at least 13,000 flights – representing two million fewer seats – cancelled worldwide by airlines already this month.

Other carriers, including easyJet and British Airways, have warned that prices will have to rise as airlines’ fuel bills rocket.

According to Cirium, the number of seats available in May among global airlines had dropped from 132 million to 130 million between 10 April and 21 April.

The aviation analytics firm said that as the war in Iran drags on, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to lead to deeper cuts in June, adding: “The longer the crisis goes on, the more cuts should be expected.”

The figures come amid warnings that airlines in the UK may be forced into rationing fuel due to shortages caused by the stand-off between the US and Iran.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off about 30 per cent of Europe’s aviation fuel shipments and a rush to source scarce alternative supplies from locations including America and West Africa has led to a doubling in prices.

A separate analysis by French bank Société Générale suggests that if only half of lost supply is replaced, fuel supply levels could breach critical levels by June, raising the possibility of airport-specific shortages and flight cancellations.

Bryan Terry, managing director of Alton Aviation Consulting, told *The i Paper*: “We anticipate additional cuts, particularly from carriers that have yet to make announcements. Every airline will be paring schedules, dropping the most unprofitable routes and reducing frequencies on busy routes where capacity exceeds demand.”

He added that airlines “typically adjust schedules on a four-to-eight-week lag after a supply shock,” so decisions around June and July flights would be made in the coming days.

Millions of Britons fly to Europe during the summer months, with Spain and Portugal among the most popular destinations along with Italy, France and Turkey.

Experts are increasingly warning that a lack of reserves and refining capacity means the UK is set to be one of the countries most affected by jet fuel shortages.

However, the Government underlined there was no immediate shortage. A spokesperson said: “UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel. Aviation fuel is typically bought in advance and airports and suppliers keep stocks of bunkered fuel to support their resilience.”

# How at risk are UK jet fuel supplies? 

The American-led bombing campaign against Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has produced a scramble to source aviation fuel from elsewhere.

To date, much of this has come from the United States. While jet fuel shipments to Northern Europe from the Middle East fell by between 90 and 100 per cent in March and April, those from North America rose by nearly 800 per cent last month.

But experts warn even such seismic shifts in supply chains cannot adequately replace a pre-war situation where the UK in particular sourced as much as 50 per cent of its jet fuel – a form of kerosene – from the Persian Gulf, now closed by the Iran conflict.

The result is that Britain, which is Europe’s largest aviation market by capacity, is said to be particularly vulnerable to shortages because of its hefty reliance on imports, a lack of reserves and a shortage of spare refining capacity to boost domestic production.

In a briefing note, investment bank Goldman Sachs said: “As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.”

Allianz Trade, part of the Germany-based Allianz finance and insurance group, issued a similar warning, saying Britain was one of a number of countries which routinely use far more aviation kerosene than they can produce.

It said: “Europe’s kerosene market is structurally vulnerable, with most major economies running persistent deficits. The UK, Germany, France and Italy show the largest shortfalls, underscoring their reliance on external supply to meet aviation demand.”

The aviation industry insists there are no immediate problems. Airlines UK, an industry body, said: “Airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.”

However, according to one insurer, there is the “likelihood of an outright supply shortfall” by the end of this month in Europe. Airlines and regulators have insisted this is unlikely, but have not ruled out shortages hitting in June and throughout the peak summer months of air travel.

# What would happen to flights in the event of fuel rationing? 

The UK Government and airlines have begun to take steps to try to anticipate supply chain disruption.

Ministers have asked the UK’s four major refineries to maximise jet fuel production in the coming months.

Alternative sources of aviation fuel supply, in particular the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, are also receiving bumper orders and deliveries have already started reaching the UK via Milford Haven.

One industry source predicted fuel rationing would lead to ticket cost rises of about 10 to 15 per cent, saying: “If we reach the stage of [fuel] rationing, you enter a world of trade-offs. Less popular routes would be axed in order to allow services to more popular routes to be maintained.

“In turn, those more popular routes would probably have a reduced frequency, which would mean less choice. But at least flights would reliably operate. On top of that you are looking at price increases to reflect the significantly higher costs that will feed through in the coming weeks and months.”

# Could summer holidays be affected? 

Regulators and operators are working to try to ensure that any adjustments to schedules and prices are signalled well in advance in order avoid a sudden shock to the aviation system.

The Government said its strategy was to avoid chaos at airports by ensuring airlines are able to put in place flight timetables that can be maintained. A spokesperson said: “We continue to work with fuel suppliers, airports, airlines and international counterparts to keep flights operating. We are also consulting on measures to help airlines plan realistic flight schedules which will avoid last-minute disruption and protect holidays.”

However, airline bosses have warned they are facing a scramble to save family holidays.

Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline by passenger numbers, has insisted the carrier has secure fuel supplies until the end of June but claimed that rivals were “desperately” searching for flights to cancel in coming weeks to limit losses.

Last week, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer also started to appear to manage expectations over summer travel, suggesting that Britons may need to rethink “where they go on holiday this year” if the war in the Persian Gulf persists.

But even if there is an unexpected diplomatic or military breakthrough that results in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it will take as much as six months for pre-war production levels of aviation fuel to be restored, suggesting potential disruption far beyond the summer period.

Allianz Trade said that the longer the closure of the shipping lane remains, the longer it will take for oil fields and refineries to restore supply chains, meaning high prices for aviation fuel could be set to persist.

The company said: “We estimate a 70 per cent recovery of lost production three months after Hormuz reopens, reaching close to 90 per cent after six months.”