Anche le discussioni sul Pil pro capite sono benvenute
https://i.redd.it/k8baf5e5uozg1.jpeg
di TipAdditional4625
Anche le discussioni sul Pil pro capite sono benvenute
https://i.redd.it/k8baf5e5uozg1.jpeg
di TipAdditional4625
31 commenti
Nobody knows what will happen in next 5y all the more so another 25
Being assembly plant and cheap outsource labour for accounting/hr/it won’t take you far. Unless we take some measure to be serious production hub then we will stagnate or drop.
Who the fuck knows? On one hand I see at least several potential deep problems:
– energy prices and political shitshow around renewables
– growing dumb-right with increasing appetite for polexit
– multi-year destruction of judiciary branch with no fix in sight – we are at the point where you can learn that your divorce actually did not happen because ‘wrong’ judge handled it
– extremely low innovation – Polish economy is great at being subcontractors, but does not innovate
On the other hand, the same problems have been there for years, and economy is going strong despite our idiot politicians. Somehow.
The only thing that is sure to happen is that Polands growth will slow down at some point. Anything other than that is big unknown, there are too many variables in economics to know for sure.
These times one political decision on the other side of the world can greatly affect us and 25 years is a lot of time
Either the low birth rate is going to cause a demographic crisis, or increased immigration will fix that but cause right-wing politicians to start making terrible political decisions
Boring. Look, if you check the GDP PPP per capita stats, we’re on track to catch up with France and Italy, still be trailing behind Germany, and let’s be real, far below Netherlands or Denmark. The tax situation here is honestly so backwards. It’s basically strangling our healthcare system and keeping public sector pay bottom-tier, but hey, it’s the perfect for drawing in foreign investors and specialists. Financially Poland will do great, but R&D? Probably still gonna be a disgrace. A unicorn company in Poland? Forget about it. It’s gonna be a solid, comfortable place to live, but nothing groundbreaking. Right now everyone’s so much hyped because we’ve got still fresh high-growth vibe, but eventually, it gonna wear off. Our future will be someting like typical, ‘average’ high-income economy
Every long term model will tell you a story about converging with the EU mean GDP, then it will be an ever slower catch-up to the rich countries, most likely ending up with stagnation at 70-80% of French/Germany GDP per capita (first in PPP, later on in nominal terms).
Stagflation (inflation + unemployment), foreign capital running away to less expensive countries (Philippines, Vietnam, India, etc.), lack of innovation from local companies; all together makes for an economic bomb with a prolonged fuse.
Nobody knows. Those who claim that they do are either lying, or are too stupid to understand that they can’t predict the future.
Economy is a chaotic system. A tiny change can have a breaking impact.
We can’t even fully understand the present. It’s after it becomes history, when we are able to point out the crucial, most impactful events, because until then we lack most of the data. Even then we don’t have the full picture, because only the most outstanding event’s obscure the less noticeable ones.
PS. That’s why you should focus on what works now and increase the exposure to situations which can bring unexpected success (for example experimenting with AI nowadays).
Wusssszzzz! Even after recent increases, Polish companies are extremely undervalued in relation to their capital, turnover, income. the money will flow.
https://preview.redd.it/bifmefcs0pzg1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=02344d5f6fce6cd80a430ad7537780d6ed7e6e87
I asked my friend at the New World Order and she sent me this. I think we’re good.
Assuming no wars or hugely disruptive events, steady growth for the next 20-ish years, slightly higher than the EU’s average. After that, millennials will start retiring and this is when Poland’s going to be hit with a demographic bomb of truly apocalyptic proportions. We don’t do nearly enough to counter it and we’re already 20 years late. What’s worse, the current political climate will make things even worse.
Nothing good. Our entire political system is made by and for old people. You can not continue a country like this.
Flat lined.
PLN 300 billion deficit per year… In 2-3 years this will lead to CRASH.
poland will consume russia with the help of china. and we’ll create the new commonwealth
25 years? That depends purely on geopolitics situation. Let me play political fiction.
1. Russian – civil war, gets divided between warlords
2. China implodes, bloody civil war
3. USA implodes, turns isolationist
4. Germany – slow decline, lacks foreign power projection
5. France – ethnicity-based civil war
As of former:
1. Western Europeans migrate to Poland fixing demographic decline
2. Poland uses Ukraine to nearshore its industries and focuses on innovation.
3. Poland invades, umm… I mean accepts request for help from Belarus and secures it’s borders from Russian civil war.
4. Poland secure Russian nukes on Belarus. They are still Belarusian, but everybody knows who holds the button.
5. Polish economy thrives and becomes second world power, behind isolated USA
6. ???
7. Profit?
8. Poland invades Iraq (for oil)
In 25 years the median age in Poland is going to be 52 (older than Japan now). Either the economy will stagnate or there will be mass immigration.
Currently the government isn’t doing anything to increase birth rates, so most likely one of those two scenarios will occur.
Asking poles about the future of Poland.. lol.
It’s a bit like these poles expats living in the UK, Germany, Netherlands that I know. They are all complaining about Poland all the time and yet they are all planning to go back to Poland in 2026/2027.
No matter how things go, poles will complain. So, to answer your question, the next 25 years for Poland? Oh, super bad!!
Country full of old people
We already have 2mil legal foreign workers, and it will just get worse with aging population and low birthrate. Imo the key to future growth will be making solid immigration/foreign workers rules that filter out all the unneeded ones and allow only skilled/needed ones to come here for work on clear conditions. Practically not doable as the current braindead right wing wave will instantly shoot it down and spew propaganda, even if the mass foreign workers arrival started under their beloved PiS party after 2016. Another issue is low innovation and no domestic giants, our economy basically still runs on western companies private investment or our companies being small and functioning as subcontractors to the previously mentioned western ones. The retirement fund also needs a total overdo, so that it functions more like an investment fund that pays for itself in big part instead of being a black hole for government aid, and yes, women should have already had the same retirement age as men 10 years ago when rightoid beloved PiS party cancelled the change, literally the only EU country where women retire earlier, not a single reason to do so as birthrate is one of the lowest in EU anyway.
I expect Poland to do quite well for the next 10 years or so. But then plateau or even slightly decline in a fashion similar to Western Europe.
The reason is demographics. In 10-15 years, the largest cohort of Poland will be in (pre)-retirement, while the youth cohort is incredibly small. This is also what caused Germany, Italy, France and others massive cost and issues.
With demographic collapse coming for every developed country it doesnt look very bright
GDP growth will slow as we catch up more to the West and as the working population ages into retirement. If I had to guess, I don’t think we’ll ever successfully overtake most Western European nations, due to lack of our own capital, low investment, and our inevitable demographic decline.
If you want to know how will Polands economy future be, look for prognosis made by Balcerowicz and assume the exact opposite
Lots of BOBER KURWA
While all the others here know nothing, I know pretty well.
1. Huge amount of foreign investment arrived in last years e.g. Intel. Leads to better paid jobs and know how on Polish soil.
2. Military buildup which brings also technological improvements, spinoffs etc. Many new defense companies expected to arise, raising more foreign capital leading to better paid jobs and know how
3. Ukraine in EU will lead to more cargo transit through Poland, thus more money for hotels, gas stations, transition fees for government budget
4. Poland in abroad is seen as a last man standing against invading culture, which leads to a brain influx of White people from west. This will probably be in a long run the most important thing of the whole list.
Poland has a shiny and wonderful future. Don’t mess up elections. Love from Czechia ❤️🇪🇺
Whatever happens in the future, I’m not planning on a long-term stay here
I think we’ve run out of our strongest advantage – cheap labor.
Now we’re running out of people too, since we’re facing massive demography crisis.
I don’t think we can maintain the level of GDP growth we’re used to.
Not unless something changes for better.
Our GDP growth is thanks to EU money. As long as we will get it, GDP will gorw. But when it stops our economy collapse. We almost don’t have any industry. Most EU money was spend for infrastructure, so we have great roads and stadiums, but they will only eat money and not generate anything on its own.
We are also very depended on Germany economy, as manufacfurers for German automotive. But German automotive is fucked and will collapse in next few years.
People become poorer and porer and inflation higher and higher, and electricity cost as well.