Washington ha pianificato 3 fasi per il TRIPP. Baku è preoccupata: Washington ha previsto 3 fasi per il TRIPP. Baku è preoccupata. Nerses Kopalyan.

Video summary

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## Washington’s Three-Phase Plan and the TRIPP Project

Source: Interview with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan (University of Nevada)
Host: Zhirayr Voskanyan (*First News / 1in.am*)

### 1. The Regional Systemic Transition

* Collapse of Russian Hegemony: The South Caucasus is transitioning away from 30–35 years of absolute Russian dominance. Due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia lacks the bandwidth and resources to dictate terms or systematically destabilize the region.
* Rise of Western Influence: The United States has emerged as the most powerful actor in the region, using both soft and hard power dynamics, while the European Union heavily reinforces regional stability through soft power.
* Systemic Precedence: Domestic political shifts or internal crises within Armenia, Georgia, or Azerbaijan cannot break this new geopolitical system. The overarching structural rules of the region now dictate internal behaviors, not the other way around.

### 2. Washington’s 3-Phase Strategy & The TRIPP Project

The United States has designed a structured, step-by-step roadmap for regional transformation:

* Phase 1: Normalization & Discourse Shift
Moving the Armenia-Azerbaijan dynamic away from active military conflict and war rhetoric into formal diplomatic and negotiation channels.
* Phase 2: TRIPP Construction
Finalizing memoranda, contracts, architectural designs, and beginning the physical construction of the TRIPP transport infrastructure corridor.
* Phase 3: Sovereignty, Demarcation, and Peace (Target: 2028)
Resolving territorial occupation, fully securing Armenian state sovereignty, and completing the signing of a comprehensive regional peace treaty under the oversight of the Trump administration.

### 3. Azerbaijan’s Strategic Concerns & Hedging

* Anxiety Over TRIPP Leadership: Baku is deeply unsettled by the appointment of Konstantin Sokolov to lead the TRIPP fund. Because Sokolov has active telecommunications and gold mining investments in Armenia, Baku perceives that Washington has given Yerevan a unique geopolitical lever of influence over the project.
* Multi-Vector Hedging: Azerbaijan is playing a flexible strategy because it is uncertain if the U.S. presence will fully consolidate over the next 5 to 15 years. They maintain functional ties with Moscow as an insurance policy, while simultaneously trying to meet Washington’s baseline demands to ensure they remain a beneficiary of regional corridors.

### 4. Armenia’s Institutional Challenges & Security

* The Institutional Learning Curve: The TRIPP corridor is a vital component of the broader Western “Middle Corridor” strategy. Because Russia historically blocked Armenia from participating in regional infrastructure initiatives, Armenian state institutions lack experience and are currently going through a rapid learning curve to build administrative capacity.
* Border Control and Sovereign Security: Challenges like incomplete border demarcation, Azerbaijani military presence inside Armenian territory, and Russian border guards are complex but being addressed incrementally.
* Replacing Russian Forces: Russian guards are systematically exiting key zones (such as Zvartnots Airport and eventually the Iranian border). The U.S. and EU are actively investing in advanced technology, equipment, and training to enable Armenian border forces to autonomously defend their own frontiers.
* Dismissing the Iranian Threat: Internal fears that Iran will attack TRIPP infrastructure are geopolitically unfounded. Iran strictly separates its macro-conflict with the U.S. in the Persian Gulf from its respect for Armenia’s sovereign borders.