Cosa avrebbe dovuto fare realisticamente l’Armenia per vincere la seconda guerra del Nagorno-Karabakh e mantenere la Repubblica dell’Artsakh?

1. Build a time machine
2. Go back in time 25 years and remove corrupt leaders
3. Start investing heavily in tech and defense

I’m not even sure that would have been enough

Yes, they could have won without firing a single shot. The way to do that was to reach a compromise with Azerbaijan in the 1990s making concessions if necessary, perhaps accepting a high degree of autonomy NATO guarantee and sign a peace agreement that both sides could live with, entering the 2000s with the conflict resolved. In fact, this option was still on the table until around 2016. It could even have included the return of thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis who had once lived together, allowing them to go back to their former homes as part of the agreement.

I think the Armenian leadership failed to resolve one key issue: were they going to preserve the existence of the Armenians of Karabakh? They could have achieved this through broad autonomy and security guarantees, or they could have taken the riskier path of seeking full independence. This dilemma not only failed to produce any results but also ultimately led to losses for the Armenians of Karabakh.

After 2016,Türkiye’s defense industry began to expand rapidly, and as its military technology advanced, the balance shifted in favor of war.

And 2020, the Armenian presence in Karabakh had already effectively come to an end. Azerbaijan simply did not want to take over all of it at once and provoke a backlash, so it tried to maintain a balance of interests. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it took control of the remaining areas as well.

In the end, because bullets outweighed peace, both sides paid the price with their own blood.

How about actually recognizing Artsakh as apart of Armenia after the first war

There is no world which we kept it . Russia would ensure it remains a frozen conflict and wouldn’t allow either side to claim it. Only way azerbaijan got it was because their partnership grew too significant  , armenia could never reach that point and you also got to consider how Turkey would always vouch for azerbaijan and armenia would never have such an ally , and azerbaijans oil money would be uncounterable. Only way we kept it is if we became an american mandate in treaty of sevres . Through nationalism we seized artsakh and through our large size and power we manage to keep it and become an american puppet rather than a russian one.

The Republic of Armenia could have acknowledged that, barring major major changes, it will always be a client state. Then it could have reflected upon how it had been treated historically by the different empires it had historically been controlled or influenced by.

Iran, pretty chill over all.

America, lots of talk with Wilsonian Armenia and then fuck all. Not to mention how they fucked over Georgia trying to spite russia in ’08

Turkey, duh.

Russia, pretty meh but also the only reason there is an Armenian Republic, sorry it’s true!

From there, decide which hand to eat from and learn not to bite it.

Artsakh could have been absorbed into the mainland Republic, with the low lands demilitarized and handed off to AZ. Alongside land exchanges for the different village enclaves on either side of the border. Keeping Russian and a lengua franca or idk how to say “Язык мира” or something. Maybe some rights of pilgrimage to the Blue Mosque or whatever.

And ideally Israel doesn’t get all of its oil from AZ lol

War is a fight of resources. Human resources in first order. In every war ever fought the side with bigger or better resources eventually won. Armenia does not have resources to fight and win a war against country that has oil and 3 time more people. It is a simple fact of math…It is possible to put up a good fight and set a better term for negotiations- that is a different story. But for that to be successful the ground work had to be done in 1999. Corruption, the terror act in parliament and exodus did not help.