Ho sempre espresso la mia speranza che l’Ucraina riprendesse Chrimea. A parte il fatto che sarebbe un duro colpo per i russi, ritengo che ciò potrebbe portare alla fine della guerra, dando loro almeno un’ottima posizione al tavolo quando si tratta di colloqui di pace.
Ora so chiaramente quanto ciò sarebbe vicino all’impossibile e che completarlo sarebbe un’impresa di forza sbalorditiva e un’impresa immane, data la difficoltà del terreno, la necessità della superiorità aerea e l’enorme numero di strutture difensive costruite dalla Russia.
Ma comunque…
Descrive l’implacabile serie di attacchi (quotidiani) che l’Ucraina sta portando su Chrimea, distruggendo risorse difensive preziose, riducendo le capacità difensive aeree dell’invasore una alla volta. Aver massacrato la flotta e i traghetti del Mar Nero ha lasciato opzioni di rifornimento limitate per i russi e il ponte di Chrimea è diventato un obiettivo di valore ancora più elevato. Combinate questo con la consegna della loro nuova flotta di F16 e la Russia in risposta che prende di mira freneticamente le piste di atterraggio che la flotta starebbe utilizzando…
Vi chiedo, sarebbe possibile? Impossibile? Cosa sarebbe necessario o quali sarebbero i problemi che lo renderebbero impossibile?
Voglio sapere se almeno posso continuare a sognare o se è solo speranza…
Ukraine is making the Russian occupation of Crimea untenable
di Neat-Development-485
26 commenti
Everything is possible. Keep on dreaming. Believe me, its yuge.
It is possible after a **very** long war that ruins Russia.
In my opinion, for Ukraine to take back Crimea, Russia needs to be dissolved, like the Soviet Union did back in 1991.
Even today, Russians are on the offensive & despite the Ukrainian missile attacks on military targets, they hold Crimea firmly.
Not without taking Kherson first . Kerch bridge needs to be brought down, and a break through in Kherson to cut north/ south supply lines. It’s heavily defended but not impossible.
Genuine question, why do I start seeing Crimea wrote _Chrimea_? Wasn’t the case a few days ago.
it’s doable but the West has to assist and keep on assisting the Ukranian Heroes
Imho it’s highly unlikely, but I hope I am wrong.
De-occupying Crimea is not a dream, it’s not a possibility, but an only possible option to ensure sustainable peace in Europe. Thus there is no way around to do that.
This is what all Europeans must understand.
It’s inevitable
It is very possible. Ukraine has to isolate the peninsula. Take out Kerch bridge and the ferries and drone the based military. No point in attacking it full on. Just wait it out, the cost of air re-supply will be a curse to Russia.
If the Ukranians are able to neutralise the Kerch Bridge, whilst simultaneously cutting off supplies via the land bridge and sea, whilst making several large beachheads into the occupied region of Kherson and then subsequently closing the landbridge, it could be done.
It’ll be an extensive campaign, in my opinion. Large amounts of troops, armour, artillery, and air power will be required to pull it off! Given the masterclass they pulled in Kharkiv Oblast, I have the utmost faith that they will reclaim what is rightfully theirs. The only disheartening thing is, is that many Ukranians would have to give their lives to do it.
Retaking Crimea is possible.
Governing will be challenging.
Russia has created a humanitarian crisis, which Ukraine will have to clean up. Many people on this sub say it’s a simple matter to deport millions of Russians. I disagree. You can’t displace a large percentage of a population without disrupting basic services.
Yes, it can be done, but the challenges should not be trivialized.
With the right weapons and strategy, its not impossible.
That said, it won’t be quick, cheap, or easy.
Unfortunately, the RuZZians also get a vote in this, and they’ve shown a willingness to expend a lot of their blood and treasure in support of bad decisions.
Would a naval invasion be possible now that the Russian fleet seems to have left the Black Sea? Something like a ukrainian version of the D-Day. Are the coasts of Crimea really that much fortified?
(I genuinely don’t know)
As long as Ukraine can recruit or conscript…. Then train….. then equip….. enough personnel to rotate troops and hold the line while Ukraine’s homefront expands their domestic drone and missile production, it’s entirely possible.
Ukraine needs people to rotate to the front while the whizbang industry keeps up R&D an expands industrial production of the weapons needed to sever Russian supply and comm lines in the rear.
Age old strategy … let them in, then chop off the head.
To do that in Crimea and the rest of Ukraine’s 1991 borders means Ukraine needs a constant supply of new soldiers. Turn off the supply of new soldiers and it’s pretty much all over except for the end.
Just Ukraine, not “the Ukraine”.
In this war? Nearly zero. But Russia is in for some tumultuous times after this disaster of a war, and Ukraine can possibly take advantage of that later. Just let the russians realize little by little how many dead they got for these results. And the bill of this war.
My uninformed armchair general take is that the Russian army will be able to maintain their positions…
until it implodes.
Then Ukraine will be able to reclaim they their territory.
Defensive structures won’t mean anything. The key to taking Crimea back will be disrupting supply lines. An army can’t fight if it has no food or ammunition.
If Ukraine has managed to gain control of the water and deny the Russians access to the Sea, Crimea will fall. It’s as simple as that. If Russia cannot resupply Crimea by sea, they cannot maintain their presence. They would have to retreat. The seaborn drones are probably the best weapon we could possibly give Ukraine
Definitely possible. The counteroffensive that was probably had one goal of cutting off the railroad to Crimea, in Tokmak, and if Ukraine had gotten air support and enough mine removal equipment back then, it might have succeeded.
Then, cut off that damn bridge. The Russian navy in the Black Sea is already down by a lot.
After that, keep up the pressure and wear them out. Not an easy task when you have to keep doing the same along the whole front, but not impossible with the right support. We in the west have been waffling about too long with it. We should go all in with everything that is needed, and we should have done that already back in 2022.
Ukraine doesn’t have to invade Crimea. They just have to siege it. Delete the Kerch bridge and gain fire control over the Kreminna highway in the North, then just maintain ranged fires until the russian forces are starved of food, water, ammo and supplies. Eventually they’ll either leave or die.
I think when the moment is right it will probably be easier to regain Crimea than Donetsk and Louhansk. It’s an island after all.
Every time I see a version of this question, I can only turn it around. “Holding Crimea — Possible or just a dream?”
One Ukraine retakes the land bridge along the sea of Azov, Russia can’t supply Crimea by sea. Ukraine has wrecked the Russian navy anywhere it can reach with sea drones. As soon as Ukraine has Azov coast control, sea of Azov is full of drones and mines. Once Ukraine is able to move more Patriot and other air defense batteries closer, Russia can’t supply Crimea by air. That only leaves the bridge. So once Ukraine drops the bridge, how can Russia supply Crimea? At all? How can they send replacement troops? Do logistics to feed those troops or bring them ammunition?
Ukraine just blockades Crimea until any remaining Russian force there is completely exhausted and incapable of any military action and eventually Ukraine just sort of walks in. Hopefully Ukraine is able to retake Crimea before Russia is exhausted to that degree. But in the long term, there’s no way for Russia to permanently supply and hold it. It just doesn’t work.
There are lots of russian civilians there participating in the occupation, so it’ll be a disaster and a shit show. But unless there’s a political settlement where Ukraine chooses to accept giving Crimea away, Ukraine can absolutely deny Russia the ability to resupply and hold it. This all depends on Ukraine getting adequate military support from allies to retake the Donbas and maintain military operations. But as long as Ukraine is given weapons and ammunition, and maintains the will to keep at it, it may take several additional years.
Retaking Crimea is honestly more doable than taking back other parts of Ukraine as it is a Peninsula. The Russian arteries that supply Crimea are a lot narrower than parts of Ukraine that share a long border with Russia and they can be cut.
It is no dream. It is absolutely possible for Ukraine to retake Crimea.
It is also in no way guaranteed.
If Ukraine had to retake Crimea one square kilometer at a time, the way that Russia is trying to gain territory elsewhere in Ukraine, that might make the cost too great for Ukraine to bear. (Although ultimately that will always be up to Ukrainians to decide, who knows what they will say.)
But it seems unlikely that Ukraine would have to do that. To mount such a sturdy defense of their gains, Russia would need not only a lot of troops but also a lot of support for those troops. Over a wide area. Where will this support come from? Their armor? Their fleet? Their AWACS planes? Their air defenses? They have lost all those things. Maybe their artillery or their aircraft but they are running out of those too.
It seems to me that by the time Ukraine is pushing Russia back in the Donbas and in Zaporizhzhia, Russia might have just enough left to concentrate its defenses in a few geographic areas that act as chokepoints against liberation of Crimea by ground forces. And that’s it.
Then what happens when Ukrainian marine infantry start landing all along the Crimean coastline, unimpeded due to the total lack of Russian naval forces, and everything Russia does still have being concentrated elsewhere?
Or F-16s start striking fixed defensive positions from long range? That’s the problem with chokepoints — you can force your enemy to fight you there, sure, great, but the same works in reverse. You are forced to stay there if you want it to work. Which makes you easy to find and hit.
So I could easily imagine many ways in which Ukraine achieves in Crimea a kind of breakout like they did in Kharkiv. Where the Russian lines were impenetrable and impenetrable and impenetrable until one day they weren’t, and as soon as Ukraine got through in one place the rest of the Russian lines just collapsed. Something similar could easily happen there.
One thing that will definitely affect Russia’s willingness to sacrifice half a million more to hold Crimea is the now-useless state of Sevastopol to their strategic interests. The port was, arguably, the most fundamentally important thing about the region to Russia, not in terms of rubles or short-term economics but as a strategic foundation of epically historical proportions. Black Sea access was fundamental to the rise of modern Russia. Losing it is a really big deal.
But, having now largely lost it, the deed is done, you know? Russia may decide that it can accept that all those Russians living in Crimea will have to return home, and Russia will make do navally speaking with the Sea of Azov and the Caucasian coast. (For however long those, in turn, last for them…)
At a given level of support and “non-escalation”? A mere dream.
Given ***SUFFICIENT*** support? Might become a real possibility.