https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1g2nejv
di KaligulaG1
https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1g2nejv
di KaligulaG1
2 commenti
I don’t have a FT subscription to read the full thing but I’m spending a lot of time thinking about this. I think if the election result is close then either losing side is going to claim the election was compromised. Whether it is or not, Georgian elections actually are not easy to rig I disagree with the article on that point.
GD are certainly *trying* to fix the election – and hopefully I’m not underestimating the chance they have a rabbit in a hat somewhere with the digital ballots – but it seems to me that they’re more preparing for a scenario where they’re unable to fix the result.
The opposition we know will claim a fix if they don’t win, they did last time when really they just lost and all the observers signed off on that election. But also GD are setting up to claim foreign interference this time around and I think it’s groundwork for disputing the result if they lose. The second scenario is probably the scariest variant to me because it’s then really not a big leap to something like Russian peacekeepers. Current feeling is the only ‘safe’ result is a big opposition victory, big enough it can’t be credibly challenged.
Yes, barring some script in the digital ballot counting which is going to spit out entirely fanciful results, I don’t see them winning enough seats to form a government. Their machine isn’t strong enough to make up the 5-10% they need for an absolute majority. I don’t think multiple voting is going to be a huge issue (maybe it inflates their results by 0.5% but i just don’t think they have enough true believers with no sense of self-worth to be able to do that all day). And I think they’ve completely maxed out the segment of society who can be bought or intimidated.
The control they have allows them a huge advantage if they want to move to a Belarus scenario. They have the police, the courts, and a big slice of the economy. They can turn this into a dictatorship with no pretenses, fast, if they want to.
But I think (hope) that they are going to back down from that fight. I’d tend to believe that Bidzina has his exit plan well rehearsed, as well as the smarter members of his inner circle. I don’t think he wants to fight half of Georgia to keep his scam running. He’ll have enough cash and assets offshore to do him for the rest of his lives. And that he just hasn’t told the rest of them— they believe that he’ll go Belarus and that’s why they’ve gone all in on the bluster. When actually he is going to leave them holding the bag. Without Bidzina, the dream collapses like a house of cards.