Intelligence americana: le minacce nucleari di Putin sono spavalde, ma è probabile che la guerra ibrida si intensifichi
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43004
di moistureys
Intelligence americana: le minacce nucleari di Putin sono spavalde, ma è probabile che la guerra ibrida si intensifichi
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43004
di moistureys
4 commenti
Somone send this article to Jake Sullivan.
Bluffing
Bluster indeed. 🇺🇦
It would be easy to say “bluffing” like most comments here. That’s what I’d say if I wanted upvotes, but let’s talk this through.
US intelligence sources concluded that “nuclear escalation is unlikely”.
“Probability” and “risk” are two very different things.
– “Probability” is the likelihood that something will happen.
– “Risk” is the likelihood multiplied by the consequences.
Consequently, a low probability of nuclear escalation remains a high risk.
Am I saying the west shouldn’t support Ukraine? No.
I’m saying that anyone who supports Ukraine, instead of dismissing the risk of nuclear escalation, should accept it and support Ukraine despite the risk.
If we only support Ukraine when our personal risk is zero, then do we really support Ukraine at all?