Secondo questo articolo in cui il leader “ribelle” ha affermato quanto segue:
Ai siriani, comprese le minoranze, hanno promesso sicurezza; ai vicini e alle potenze come la Russia hanno promesso relazioni pacifiche. Jawlani ha anche assicurato alla Russia che le sue basi siriane rimarrebbero illese se gli attacchi cessassero.
Collegamento: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo.amp
Russian bases will remain in syria? How is that even possible?
byu/Carnach inukraine
di Carnach
28 commenti
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They’re already flying Syrian opposition flag on an embassy in Moscow. He’s most definitely got other people looking to depose him, so he’s trying to get all the allies he can, additionally Russia will pay to keep their bases while the US/EU are twitching on the floor having a populistic stroke.
Either they’re giving the Russians time to leave, or they’re looking for a new deal with them.
The new government needs international allies too. It seems like Iran is off the table. The US is problematic for them too because of their support for Israel.
Jawlani has no need to antagonise Russia further. He needs to legitimase his power within Syria, and for that he needs to avoid regional and global powers working against him.
Maybe they will give Assad to the new regime in return for keeping the bases. Now he is no further use to russia.
Unharmed doesn’t mean they can keep those bases forever. Russia is packing their stuff to go home, according to russian TG channels.
It’s a smart play – he’s going to see what deal he can get from Russia versus the West and play all sides off each other. At the end of the day, for all of the moderate language he uses, this guy is a hardcore Islamic fundamentalist and his ultimate aims will be aligned with that. He’s just smart enough to know he needs to play the game until he has consolidated power
Insert “under new management” meme
“Unharmed” doesn’t mean kept. It just means the rebels won’t assault them and kill everyone inside. Provided the Russians leave without a fuss, which they already started doing.
Russian sources (cant read russian, so cant confirm) are talking about pulling troops. Fighterbomber etc.
Money and greed
This is a matter for Syria to decide however in doing so they should perhaps dwell on the consequences of allowing Russia to remain in a position (port and airbases) to militarily support a future uprising against the legitimate government of Syria.
Could be better that they are left there rather than being moved to Ukraine
Please stop thinking in terms of elected governments. We are talking regular Cartels here rather than governments. Russian government is a regular mafia cartel by any standard. They can agree with any other cartel where convenient and fight to death (on public) where convenient. Each cartel needs money to function and it is hard to raise money by taxes in a country destroyed by 13 years of war.
At the moment Assad cartel was kicked out whilst all his Amphetamine-like Captagon labs are still producing and are in process of changing owners, nothing personal just business. These drugs needs to be transported and sold, money to be laundered. Putin’s cartel would be very happy to give them a helping hand. Also, selling cheap weapons would help Putin.
terrorists like each other
I doubt they will allow the russians, who have been killing them remain in their country.
As I read yesterday (I can’t recall where), Jawlani stated that no russian soldiers or bases would remain in Syria. Unless he has changed his mind or statements, I intepret this “will remain unharmed” as “won’t be attacked but evacuated in a peaceful way”.
Also russia has supposedly make an agreement with Turkey to help them evacuate the bases.
The Rebels are vassals of Turkey. They will do what is in the interest of Turkey. If Ankara makes a deal with Russia, the bases will stay.
Perhaps this is reasonable. I can’t claim
to really understand the situation in Syria but I would imagine that the new government could do with not antagonising Russia or Iran while they try to pacify the country. I assume they will also allow the US base to remain in the South for similar reasons.
Sounds like he offered russia this kind of deal:
“Stop attacking us and leave and we won’t kill you.”
Or you could read it as “fuck off or die”.
Hardly the friendliest of terms, he just doesn’t want to waste his weapons and men on something he doesn’t have to. Heknows he’ll be needing them for consolidating power and fighting off any other internal groups who might oppose him.
It’s early days still. It’s too early to tell.
Disinformation. Ruskies gotta start packing.
They have come to an agreement, if they leave in (say 30 days or so) no bloodshed.
New government doesn’t want them, but equally doesn’t want to spend any forces getting them out.
Win / win for units concerned.
Diplomacy
The Russians have an intergovernmental deal for the bases, not a contract on a napkin with the Assad family. Jawlani is a pragmatist seeking to establish himself as the legitimate successor in government. If the Russians are no longer fighting him, he’ll listen to what they have to say.
The same US way is still legally having a military base in Cuba? Lease contracts carries further no matter who runs a country. Same as country debt
All your base are belong to us. 😁
Nothing really changed in Syria, except for the assad not being top dog anymore, some other savage organisation will take his place and it will be business as usual going forward.. repressions will follow their usual course after they consolidate power.