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    Un mese prima delle elezioni tedesche. Ultimo sondaggio

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    1. Jaeger__85 on

      Two other recent polls have AFD at 20% and CDU/CSU at 31%.

    2. Ok-Beyond-201 on

      The most likely outcome would be a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition.

      Many politicians of the CDU/CSU already warning of an coalition with the greens. This could lead to a AfD with 30+% in 2029 like in austria. The greens are atm as divisive as the AfD.

    3. Mateking on

      one month and a half. INSA is pretty much known for overestimating AfD. And Undercountingh Greens and others. So yeah and even they themselves give themselves a 2,5% error margin.

    4. Confident-Kiwi693 on

      It’s probably a good idea to look at the range within which parties are polling, rather than just one poll.

    5. -Stoic- on

      So this fieldwork is pre Musk’s livestream. Will be interesting to see if it had any effect in future polls.

    6. _tibpson on

      The dangerous part of these polls is that a lot of voters are not willing to tell that they will vote on AfD. Expect more then what they have.
      This happen last year in Portugal where the far-right party which is not even has extreme has AfD was about 10 points below in every polls then what it got in the end.

      If a voter is ashamed to tell on who is voting maybe that is a sign that the party is not good.

    7. harry6466 on

      That’s not AFD thats Elon Musk/Putin they want to vote for.

    8. johnlocke905 on

      **Do you know why the FDP’s votes have decreased?**

      #

    9. ilArmato on

      Are afd voters really that disconnected from reality that they think hitler was a communist? East Germany was communist not that long ago, where the afd has most support. So I refuse to believe they’re actually so misinformed.

    11. Cheap_Marzipan_262 on

      This is already way too many brownshirts.

      But cannot imagine how bad the next one will look after we now get a weak infighting CDU+SPD+GREENS.

      Could potentially both BSW and Linke end up under the hurdle?

    12. Kuhl_Cow on

      Or [we look at aggregated polls](https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/umfragen-bundestagswahl-neuwahl-wahltrend) instead of a single poll by a polling institute known for overestimating AfD. I marked those safely in parliament in bold.

      Currently:

      * **CDU** (conservative): 31.2%
      * **AfD** (far right): 19.9%
      * **SPD** (social democrats): 15.7%
      * **Greens** (green-social liberal): 13.4%
      * *BSW (???): 5.1% – medium chance they don’t make the 5%-treshold*
      * *FDP (liberal): 3.9% – good chance they don’t make the 5%-treshold*
      * *Linke (far left): 3.4% – high chance they don’t make the 5%-treshold*

      Likely governments:

      * CDU + SPD
      * CDU + Greens
      * CDU + SPD + Greens

    14. BaconBurger3735 on

      CDU is usually black, AfD blue and BSW is violet, at least in Germany.

    17. i_upvote_for_food on

      We just need the Economy to be booming, because then, much less people will care about politics, let alone extremism.

    18. phanomenon on

      the 3% of the left should just vote green. the left party is low key obsolete now.

    20. antelatis on

      We are all so rich and wealthy in Germany that the lefties can only get 3%.

    24. dagross2307 on

      Imagine CDU, SPD, Green coalition and then the AfD being the only opposition. If that government wont deliver the AfD will be at the top in five years.

    25. Seba_USR_2024 on

      My prevision : CDU/CSU: 29%, AfD: 23%, SPD: 18%, Grunen: 12% others…

    26. Designer_Junket_9347 on

      Dumb American here, I always thought Germany was very liberal. Why is Germany leaning right?

    28. Martzi-Pan on

      The coalition… and, really, the whole European political establishment has only itself to blame.

      For years, they only threatened to take action on online disinformation, and they did nothing. For years, they have talked about fixing housing and making the EU economy more vibrant for young voters, and they did nothing. For years, they have piled up regulations and social welfare programs, increasing taxes and decreasing investment in youth & start-up programs. For years, we have seen waves after waves of migrants, and instead of coming together to police our common EU border, they have decided to just fight amongst themselves. Instead of trying to find common ground, have common agendas, these “political elites” wanted their ego inflated with international recognition.

      No wonder people all across Europe are voting for radicals… and “political elites” still are not taking any actual actions to address the issues at hand.

      We have weak ass leaders, and it shows…

    30. Mahtinhpozdah7 on

      While insa definetely overstates them, every Single poll since the year began has afd at 20+% and cdu has now fallen from 32-34% range to 30-31%. The greens are 13-15%, spd 15-16 %, bsw 4-6%, fdp 4% and die linke 3-4 %

    32. lifespixels on

      Possibly a wild idea, but could it be that SPD and FDP voters are turning to the AfD? I cannot seem to find any other plausible explanation. Of course, some voters are going with the winner (CDU), but the transfer to the AfD seems huge.

    34. Temporary_Bug8006 on

      Fuck the guy that makes those polls for using blue for CDU/CSU

    37. ToQuoteSocrates on

      Makes me think of the American elections, those polls are likely wrong and AFD will secure a great victory.

    39. MichaelCR970 on

      This is not the election AfD is gonna win.
      But the election after this one. Sadly 🙁

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