Economista: La Bulgaria avrà il via libera per adottare l’euro dal 1° gennaio 2026

Most likely, in the coming months, Bulgaria will submit a request for an extraordinary convergence report, which will be released in the spring and will give the green light for the introduction of the euro from January 2026. This is what Petar Ganev, a senior researcher at the Institute for Market Economics, wrote in his analysis regarding the possibility of Bulgaria joining the eurozone from January 1, 2026. The

analysis indicates that as of January 2026, the average annual inflation in Bulgaria is 2.6%. The criterion uses the average annual inflation in the three European Union countries with the lowest value. These are Lithuania, Finland and Italy.

«As of December 2024, the average annual inflation in Bulgaria is 2.6%, while in the three countries with the lowest inflation in the EU it is 0.9% in Lithuania, 1.0% in Finland and 1.1% in Italy, respectively. The criterion takes the average of the three countries with the lowest (by definition «best») inflation – in this case, this is exactly 1.0%, and adds 1.5 points. Thus, the criterion is 2.5%, that is, Bulgaria’s deviation is 0.1%;

In this sense, as of December 2024, the criterion is not fulfilled in its pure form. Often, when the criterion is calculated by the European Commission and the European Central Bank, one of the countries with the lowest inflation is excluded from the calculation, as it deviates significantly (downward) from inflation in the other EU countries. If this is applied only to the last Lithuania (0.9%), then it is replaced by Denmark or Ireland (both with 1.3%) and the criterion is increased to 2.6 (1.1+1.5) and then Bulgaria already meets the criterion,» the economist points out.

He adds that the expectations are that the country will meet the inflation criterion in 2025.

«The expectations are that in January 2025, the average annual inflation in Bulgaria will fall to 2.5, and the criterion will remain the same or increase, as the trend in Europe has reversed and prices are rising. The average annual inflation will remain at similar levels in the first half of the year, so Bulgaria is rather entering a period (within this year) in which it will meet the criterion,» he explains.

The conclusion presented by the IME indicates that Bulgaria has very real chances of joining the eurozone from January 1, 2026.

«All this means that most likely in the coming months Bulgaria will submit a request for an extraordinary convergence report, which will be released in the spring and will give the green light for the introduction of the euro from January 2026. The path is largely technical, as the main political steps and changes in legislation have already been made,» the economist added.

Good for you, Bulgaria 🇧🇬