L’aumento della spesa per la difesa potrebbe aumentare in modo significativo la crescita economica e la base industriale dell’Europa se mirati ad armamenti ad alta tecnologia e realizzati a livello regionale, secondo un nuovo studio

    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/guns-and-growth-the-economic-consequences-of-surging-defense-spending/

    di Straight_Ad2258

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    25 commenti

    1. Straight_Ad2258 on

      this isn’t a surprise to anyone, its basically wartime Keynesianism

      more government spending on investment means more consumption and production in the economy

      Russian economy is held afloat by increased defense spending as well, s**omething like 2/3 of GDP growth over the past year is due to growth in defense-related sectors( metalurgics for armament, chemical industry for the defense sector etc.)**

      of course, there is a price to pay for that, namely higher inflation, especially when you go to the level of **Russia at like 7% of GDP defense spending**

      but we are currently at barely 2% defense spending as % of GDP

      but going from the current 2% to 3% would result in little additional inflation, while it would massively increase European security and help us arm Ukraine ,thus destroying more of Russia’s army

      on the other side, increased production in the defense industry would increase GDP and revenues a little as well, so that would cancel some of the deficit related problems with government spending

      for example , going from 2% to 3% defense spending as share of GDP would likely increase deficit by only 0.7% percentage points, because the additionally employed workers and additional production would pay taxes and generate revenues as well

      going further than 3% would be more complicated, however

      **i think 4 to 5% would have compounded inflationary effects as it would also crowd out qualified labor from other parts of the economy**

      but until we haven’t reached 3% we shouldn’t even begin to worry about defense budget bloat

    2. BKaempfer on

      If our governments were to increase defense spending with long term contracts to our local defense industry, this would benefit us all.
      More arms and equipment, more jobs, more research and a whole downstream industry of manufacturing, procurement etc.
      It would create jobs and all the money spend would multiply in our own economy, not get sent to the US.

      In the end Europe would be more secure, more self sufficient and far better off than today.

    3. WhoIsJolyonWest on

      Why is it that we have to rely on weapons and drugs to keep the global economy afloat?

    4. Straight_Ad2258 on

      The paper’s main conclusions are as follows.

      * There is broad consensus that the economy expands to accommodate at least part of the increased defense spending, production, procurement, and employment. There is some disagreement on the magnitude of this expansion and whether military spending crowds out or stimulates the private sector. The effects will depend on the context, including the ECB’s response and the source of financing. **A conservative estimate is that the Europe-wide GDP will grow by 0.9% to 1.5% if defense spending increases from 2% to 3.5% of GDP. This implies only a limited tradeoff between armament and private consumption in the short run in the short run.**
      * **GDP growth will be smaller, possibly negative, if the increases are financed with tax increases rather than borrowing. Increases in defense spending should be mostly financed through public debt.** This is particularly true of temporary increases in spending. But permanent buildups should also be initially financed through public debt, because of the durable nature of defense procurement.
      * **The evidence is clear that military spending is no more harmful in recessions than in economic booms, so that spending should either be countercyclical or smoothed over the cycle.**
      * **The long-run productivity gains from military spending may be substantial. The best examples of public research and development are for military applications and there is evidence of spillovers to the private sector. A transient 1% of GDP increase in military spending could increase long-run productivity by a quarter of percent both through learning-by-doing and R&**D. The returns to public R&D are particularly high and may pay for themselves. R&D spending has been identified as one of the three main keys to addressing Europe’s lagging productivity in the Draghi report.
      * Nearly 80% of European defense procurement is imported from non-EU suppliers. Harnessing the long-run technological gains from military spending requires far more of European defense spending to be procured from Europe.

      [https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/22f23418-d42e-4e19-8ebd-7e59a643a4d1-Kiel_Report_no2.pdf](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/22f23418-d42e-4e19-8ebd-7e59a643a4d1-Kiel_Report_no2.pdf)

      TLDR: going from 2% to 3.5% defense spending as % of GDP would actually increase GDP by 0.9 to 1.5%

      BUT the catch is that the increases in spending have to be financed by borrowing ,rather by cutting government spending

      **so basically Keynesianism 101**

    5. I think what also would be good for the Europ as a whole is Israel approach. Where after hightschool you go to the army, 3 years for men and 2 for women.
      Build on that a buisness model that if you want to be a manager you would need a prof of beyond in the army. I think spending plus military service is a key.
      Let the downvote start.

    6. atchijov on

      Generally speaking, military spendings are the most wasteful way to grow economy… but unfortunately until we resolved regional threats (Russia) we would have to be wasteful this way.

    7. rtrs_bastiat on

      Yea no shit, though last time we did this it did wind up being followed by massive economic growth restoring all the ruins of a continent

    8. Emotional_Platform35 on

      Not being part of Putins murderous corrupt oligarchy boosts economic growth

    9. Inside_Ad_7162 on

      am I the only person thinking “no shit sherlock”?

    10. Bifetuga on

      I’d much prefer investment in innovation in health and wellbeing but the world has gone war crazy.

    11. Ukraine is a good reasen to do this. Pissing off degenerate Trumpistanians is another good reason.

    12. UGgottlieb on

      Ultimately, Vance message is a call to arms. We need to stand up and become strong again and rebuilding our armies and creating a EU army is now an the single biggest priority.

      In a multipolar world we can play a bigger role, especially of the Americans decide to exist stage left.

    13. TheSleepingPoet on

      #Europe’s Military Spending Boom: A Path to Economic Growth?

      European governments could significantly boost economic growth by increasing defence spending—if they invest wisely in home-grown military technology. That’s the argument put forward in a new report by the Kiel Institute, which suggests that shifting from imported weapons to European-made armaments could lift GDP by up to 1.5 percent a year. The study estimates that raising annual defence spending from NATO’s 2 percent benchmark to 3.5 percent of GDP could inject as much as 300 billion euros into the economy, provided the money is channelled into domestic industries.

      Professor Ethan Ilzetzki of the London School of Economics, who authored the report, believes this could reshape the political debate on military funding. While many fear that higher defence spending inevitably comes at the cost of public services and private consumption, history suggests otherwise. Economic growth need not suffer, particularly if governments finance additional spending through borrowing rather than immediate tax hikes. The benefits could be even greater during economic downturns, when defence investments often stimulate broader industrial activity.

      Europe’s renewed focus on defence comes amid heightened security concerns following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Military budgets have already risen, but many nations still hover just below NATO’s target. Calls for more spending have grown louder, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reminding leaders that Europe invested over 3 percent of GDP in defence during the Cold War, and former US President Donald Trump urging allies to push even higher, to 5 percent.

      The key, according to the report, is ensuring that the economic benefits of military spending stay within Europe. At present, around 80 percent of EU defence procurement comes from outside the bloc, mainly the US. Investing in European-made military technology could drive innovation, strengthen the industrial base, and create jobs, generating long-term productivity gains beyond the immediate fiscal boost. The US already spends 16 percent of its military budget on research and development, ten times the EU’s share. Increasing Europe’s defence R&D could deliver major technological advances with spillover benefits for the wider economy.

      The study also argues that greater military coordination at an EU level would maximise efficiency. A Europe-wide procurement strategy could stimulate competition, prevent duplication, and help smaller defence firms develop technologies with civilian applications. If executed well, this approach could turn Europe’s defence needs into a powerful engine for economic growth.

      Professor Ilzetzki will present the findings at the Munich Security Conference, where they are likely to add fuel to the growing debate over Europe’s military future. As tensions persist and security concerns mount, the continent may have little choice but to spend more on defence. The question now is whether it can do so in a way that strengthens not just its armies, but its economy as well.

    14. dillanthumous on

      Keir Starmer could use this as an opportunity to revitalise the dying northern parts of the UK as well.

    15. Organic-Category-674 on

      Replace US IT first. It’s a doable thing which will return billions.
      Can’t Europeans use their social and trade networks if Zuck and Bezos f. off?
      Can’t Europeans survive without iPhones? Those who need them must pay 200% tariff

    16. TechnicallyOlder on

      I hope nobody in Europe is dumb enough to buy US weapons anymore. The USA are a security risk and not trustworthy at the moment. You can’t risk to be in a conflict reliant on US ammunition or spare parts and then Trump comes along and wants 50% of your countries natural resources if you want any deliveries.

      But it is not only weapons were Europe needs to be more independent. We do not have a single European Credit Card system. There is VISA and Mastercard – no european credit card provider.

      And the EU should support European A.I. companies in case the US decides to cut Europe off.

    17. CreateNull on

      That is only true if Europe actually develops it’s own industry instead of buying from US. There are politicians in Brussels like von der Leyen who appear to be traitors and ok with Europe’s vassalisation to US. We need more leaders like Macron, and get rid of the likes of von der Leyen or Mark Rutte.

    18. Ubykrunner on

      Yeah, but once a shit ton of new weapons is made people usually put it into active work.

      Pre WW1 run to arms comes to mind.

    19. Who is gonna build all those regional armament factories? How long will that take? And who will work in them? As long as this is unsure Europe will just buy stuff from suppliers outside EU.

    20. This is classic Broken Window Fallacy. You can make economic figures go up but society doesn’t benefit from there being more weapons around.

    21. No-Count-7717 on

      If this happens then we need to block all American equipment purchases, buy European

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