Secondo questo sondaggio, AFD è del 24% come CDU. AFD sarà il partito al potere nel 2029? È solo un aumento temporaneo? Le tariffe di Trump diminuiranno il sostegno per AFD in futuro?
di YesterdayNecessary27
Secondo questo sondaggio, AFD è del 24% come CDU. AFD sarà il partito al potere nel 2029? È solo un aumento temporaneo? Le tariffe di Trump diminuiranno il sostegno per AFD in futuro?
di YesterdayNecessary27
10 commenti
Lets say they become strongest force but not by a total majority (aka less than 50% of the seats in the Bundestag), they can either decide to go into a Minderheitsregierung (minority government) but need sufficient votes from other parties to have one of theirs become chancellor, or the other parties form a large enough coalition to take the majority. Either way, its gonna be an absolute shitshow
You need 50%, not 24.
So the answer is no, they wont. Nobody will work with them.
It will be the strongest party in 2029 I believe. The only way to avoid them becoming the government would probably be huge coalitions between the CDU and left parties. Which won’t be popular at all. Exciting times.
No one here has a crystal ball.
That said, it depends a lot on the next administration and what crises arise in the meantime. If we still have media reporting on every asylum seeker who is violent, islamists attacks every few weeks or months and high inflation, I’m pretty sure we’ll see AfD as biggest party in the next election.
If there’s prosperity, booming job sector in tech (looking at you, US tariffs), new trade agreements with everyone except USA etc, AfD power will decline.
Nobody can answer that. Polls so close after an election are not that meaningful IMO. At most, this shows that conservative voters are currently not happy with the CDU, but they’re not even in government yet. A lot will happen in 4 years and it can go either way. And keep in mind that the AfD being the largest party would not automatically (or even likely) make them the ruling party.
Afd has a fatal flaw. The tax policies they want are gonna actively impoverish their own voterbase.
It has nothing to do with tariffs, but with the fact the Union is seen as insincere by more and more people, after seemingly throwing most of their conservative campaign promises over board in favor of forming a coalition with the SPD.
Who knows who the ruling party will be in 2029. Basically all parties refuse to work with the AfD. Can they uphold that stance if the AfD makes even more significant gains until then? No idea. The bigger the AfD, the more parties, some of which with very differing political ideas, would need to band together to form a coalition without the AfD.
Given that traditional parties are doing absolute jack about the AfD or the looming problems of this country, yeah, sadly there is every chance that this country too will continue tilting to the right. It doesn’t matter whether they’re any better or not. They just need to appear different to continue getting votes.
The AfD could be at 40% and still wouldn’t be part of the government, because no one will govern with this Kremlin submarine.
Nonetheless, these poll numbers are alarming, and such results offer the AfD other opportunities to exert influence. For example, it could block changes to the constitution if it achieves a third of the seats. I think this situation will further fuel the discussion about banning this party.
The AfD has some compelling planks in their platform, as does Trump. What concerns me is Putin’s influence over both.