La guerra commerciale può ridurre il pool degli acquirenti nel mercato immobiliare a causa della dipendenza dai ricchi lavoratori multinazionali

So funny the way The Journal tries really hard to paint this is “negative” in every sentence. An alternative take would have been “Buyers may see less completion from foreign workers on inflated salaries”

I told you so. For many this will be an opportunity of a lifetime.

This would just prevent the increase right?

Very unlikely we see new builds cheaper than they are now in a year’s time for example?

Working at MNC tech company now and could get a tap on the shoulder any day , also trying to buy an overpriced new build at the same time. Hard to see a scenario I don’t get railed.

I can’t afford those type of houses even if they drop hugely in value so unless there’s a big knock on effect, who cares

“May” is foing a lot of heavy lifting here

Too much pent up demand to matter anyway. Not that demand is the issue; it’s supply of course.

Fundamentally we are building at around 30,000 per annum and reports from various bodies (ESRI, Central Bank, etc) put demand at north of 60,000 (I’ve seen as high as 90,000 floating around) and a backlog of 250,000 when you account for pent up demand from prior years.

People expecting a slowdown followed by a post 2008 style housing market are fundamentally misunderstanding where we are today. In 2007 we built almost 100,000 homes and were selling them in a credit fuelled bubble – plenty of people had 2nd and even 3rd+ homes they had buy to let.

Today we have relatively tight credit, we need government to subsidise construction and purchase via all the FTB schemes, and we fundamentally can’t seem to get supply up beyond the 30’s. House prices are rising by very significant annual percentages.

If we had an economic slowdown tomorrow, unemployment increased and tech workers moved away, it would ease the pressure of increases perhaps. But you would still have people in good jobs living in rented accomodation or their parents houses, who want to go out and form a household.

Fundamentally in 2008, anyone who wanted a home up to then had one. There was a lot of mortgage arrears but not too many reposessions.

Today anyone who wants a home does not have one, and the tide going out on the economy would reduce demand from 60-90,000 homes per year, and that backlog from 250,000, to maybe closer to what we are actually delivering.

This assumes there isn’t a banking crisis and credit freeze thrown into the mix. But the dynamics in 2008 were not the same as today in that sector, at all.

I’m sick of this fucking wishful thinking bullshit.

Who does the article benefit ?

It’s so heartbreaking to see people post this stuff because it gives them hope, perpetuating the problem long enough so another generation of FFG grifters can have another payday.

The Irish government make me sick to my stomach. They support genocide. They support US Imperialism. They fucked housing sector, healthcare. They destituted my family and neighbours and caused the complete decimation of rural Ireland. Energy prices are extremely high. It’s very hard to start a business without getting taxed to kingdom come and jump through hoops. Their allegiance lies with the international financial system and not with the people and if you think otherwise you’re either a fool, nieve or a nieve fool.

Simply wait until a bunch of low information voters in the US vote in an intellectually disabled fascist who immediately crashes their economy so hard the reverberations can be felt in housing demand on the other side of the Atlantic.

That was the plan all along.

Positive effect from any downturn would be slow down in demand. Key lesson for government is just keep building through a downturn