Il carcere il rivale più competitivo non sembra funzionare: anche le alternative pungono il regno autoritario

Source: Europe Elects, HBS Research

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FYI: The election is officially set for 2028, but certain that it’ll occur no later than Q2 2026. The electoral council has already procured millions of ballots with an emergency delivery. There are also political levers that will force Erdogan into an election within a year.

Mansur Yavaş is from a MHP (ultranationalist) background, but has embraced the new identity under CHP in the last 15 years. While he doesn’t have the “political success” of Ekrem İmamoğlu, Yavaş is more attracted by the rural conservative/nationalist electorate, despite his political party. In both cases, CHP pledges a regime change within 15 days – with Ekrem İmamoğlu becoming the Prime Minister and Yavaş taking the role as the President, which will be roughly ceremonial.

For better or worse, candidates’ suppression doesn’t work not only in Romania, who’s obsessed with putin’s lil’ b!tchets, but in Turkey too.

That’s assuming the election is sufficiently free and fair, or elites are willing to succumb to what are often referred to as “color revolutions”.

There’s a chance that Erdoğan may install a loyalist successor through a backroom deal in the 2028 election (similar to what happened in the DRC in 2018) to maintain a facade of democracy while preserving corrupt elite interests. It wouldn’t be a full dictatorship, but would remain in the realm of competitive authoritarianism.