Perché l’Ucraina deve scommettere tutto sulla più grande debolezza di Putin: Crimea

Good analysis on Crimea: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3onBGqcHHk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3onBGqcHHk)

This is stupid statement, as Crimea is natural fortress with significant Russian population. It must be returned to Ukraine, as by any international law it is Ukrainian territory. But it is not valid goal for military campaign.

This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Crimea is an impenetrable fortress. The fact that anyone sees Ukraine currently on the backfoot losing ground slowly but surely to a non stop Russian offensive and thinks ”yeah these guys should focus on Crimea” is hilarious.

*The 2014 annexation of Crimea marked the birth of Putin’s modern imperial project, a bloodless operation that transformed a struggling autocrat into the architect of Russian resurgence. For nearly a decade, the peninsula has served as the cornerstone of Putin’s political legitimacy, the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” that proved Moscow could challenge the western-led order and win. But by 2025, this supposition has become Putin’s most dangerous vulnerability.*

The peninsula that Putin claimed as his greatest political achievement now represents his most dangerous strategic liability, creating an existential threat to regime stability that extends far beyond military considerations. Ukraine must recognize this moment and press its advantage.

**Military collapse in Crimea**

The transformation of Crimea from a Russian stronghold to strategic liability represents one of the most dramatic military reversals in modern warfare. Ukraine has [destroyed or damaged](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/6/7440598/#:~:text=Ukrainian%20forces%20have%20disabled%20approximately,of%20the%20full%2Dscale%20invasion.&text=Quote%3A%20%22The%20General%20Staff%20of,Russian%20ships%20and%20one%20submarine.) 33 per cent of the Black Sea Fleet, forcing the historic withdrawal of all major naval assets from Sevastopol by July 2024. The fleet that once dominated the Black Sea as Russia’s “lake” has been ruined and moved to less capable ports, severely limiting operational capacity.

This collapse extends beyond the country’s naval forces. Ukrainian strikes using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles have created critical gaps in Russian air defence coverage across the peninsula. The [destruction](https://www.twz.com/news-features/major-damage-at-russian-airbase-in-crimea-after-ukrainian-attack) of multiple S-400 and S-300 systems at Dzhankoi, Belbek and other installations has forced Russia to concentrate remaining assets around the Kerch Bridge, leaving other areas exposed. British intelligence [confirms](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024) this has fundamentally degraded Russia’s ability to defend Crimean airspace.

The crown jewel of Russian vulnerability remains the Kerch Bridge itself. The [underwater attack](https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukraines-sbu-strikes-crimean-bridge-in-underwater-attack/) on the Kerch Bridge in June, the third successful strike since 2022, demonstrates Russia’s inability to protect its sole direct supply route to Crimea. Despite massive defensive investments, [Ukraine’s 1,100 kilogram TNT](https://crimea-platform.org/en/news/3-chervnia-sluzhba-bezpeky-ukrainy-uspishno-realizuvala-unikalnu-spetsoperatsiiu-vnaslidok-iakoi-vtretie-vrazheno-krymskyy-mist-tsoho-razu-pid-vodoiu/) equivalent operation targeting underwater support pillars forced traffic suspensions and highlighted the bridge’s fundamental vulnerability.

no one will even notice

the only his weakness is his life, that’s the only prime target