Il Regno Unito è bloccato in un “Loop Doom Debt Doom”, afferma Top Investor | Economia
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/28/uk-debt-doom-loop-hedge-fund-chief-ray-dalio-tax-rises
di nasrudin45
Il Regno Unito è bloccato in un “Loop Doom Debt Doom”, afferma Top Investor | Economia
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/28/uk-debt-doom-loop-hedge-fund-chief-ray-dalio-tax-rises
di nasrudin45
22 commenti
What’s with all of these 1st world great powers and their endless national debts and constant austerity in the last few years? Suddenly when its my turn to be an adult it all goes to hell?
Hard to reduce debt when you’ve invested in nothing for 14 years but expect the economy to grow.
Cutting public spending further will continue to be a race to the bottom where we end up paying taxes solely to service debt.
You know, one guy who is highly invested in politics and the economy going in a certain direction might have biased opinions. Can we at least find a few Academic Economists to offer their professional opinion?
This is not a surprise to anyone who has actually been paying attention to the economy. We are currently borrowing and in deficit at record levels to pay for an ever expanding public expenditure bill and the associated debt repayments which themselves have enormous interest rates as a result of our spending habits. The Tories chose to engage in half-in/half-out austerity during times of unprecedented low interest rates, so not only didn’t they cut as far and as deep in the places they needed to, they didn’t spend when and where they should’ve spent either. This was then followed after failing to implement austerity properly by them spending when they shouldn’t have spent and ballooning the costs of government and state.
Now that Labour is in it is politically snookered by its own MPs and membership because – to put it kindly – they live in economic fantasyland and can’t countenance any sort of tightening of the belt and infact want an acceleration of the expenditure increases that the Tories started doing in the late 2010s. Any policy that is proposed that even threatens to shave a tiny amount off of the national deficit is met with unbelievable resistance.
We are heading towards needing a bailout and the conditions of the bailout will be so severe that things like the state pension and almost all of the welfare state could be toast. People in Britain today do not and cannot understand the ramifications of such an event – the reason governments try and cut things before it reaches that point is because the IMF (or maybe the EU/US – the IMF may not be able to bailout a country with the economy of the U.K.) will absolutely savage all of the cosy little luxuries we have grown so used to.
And the picture isn’t getting any better. We have an aging population and all the associated costs, we continue to import hundreds of thousands of immigrants to depress productivity and wages and GDP Per Capita, we have no industrial strategy whatsoever, there is no serious plan to tackle the housing/planning crisis and we seem to have abandoned all reason when it comes to energy generation. Everything every government has done since at least 2010c arguably earlier, can be categorised as “not wide enough and not deep enough to make a meaningful positive change but with enough rhetoric used to expend all your political capital”.
The outlook is not good.
Even if we get close to getting the country out of debt, there will be a war that conveniently pops up to scrape us back down into debt
Yay. This is just the pick me up news I needed on a Monday morning
Of the richest 1% in the UK, only 28% of them pay any Income Tax at all. The richest do not work, they are Billionaires and Landlords and all their wealth is registered in tax havens and all their profits go there. They just extract, they don’t create anything.
Look at our highstreets, the reason they are dead is because of a squeezed majority of the country with no disposable income, and shit chains providing the bare minimum in service to extract the most from our country. The fact that we have another government in the pockets of these vampires is immensely depressing.
The government doesn’t own any assets so we pay effectively rent to the people who do own our hospitals, electricity, gas, housing benefit to landlords, the list is endless. There’s no solution without nationalising some of these monopolies. It’s a leaky bucket. Most of our taxes don’t go to frontline services.
“Hedge fund chief Ray Dalio warns over public finances, saying Britain will be forced into spending cuts and tax rises” – aha
Monday morning wake up with UK government. I feel like. A walk in hell
Labour are just screwed.
The public gets angry when they suggest tax rises. The party rebels when they suggest making cuts
The banking sector wins either way, so it’s in their interest for countries to be in so much debt, from the interest payments alone.
Note how ray dalio conflates wealth and income taxes. He knows what he’s doing.
For me, the elephant in the room are our huge VAT rates. Most people seem to have forgotten that these can be readily changed, and yet they are one of the most regressive taxes ever invented.
The real question is what do we do now?
At the moment Reeves is just putting her foot on the accelerator of demise.
The markets are already speculating a Truss style fiscal even might just be around the corner and could happen any day now.
Growth requires investment both from public sector (general infrastructure) and private sector (modern technology). The UK has long been seriously averse to investment seeming to believe you can build a thing once and then it will work well forever. We always hear about the productivity problem in the UK and the blame is always put on the idle workforce but when Honda and Nissan built their factories here (to take advantage of free trade – the other elephant in the room) and brought in new technology and less adversarial management procedures the UK factories were their most productive.
It is pretty hard to get more tax with stagnant wage growth.
Quite frankly I am tired of this “rich people will leave” rubbish. Fine, let them go somewhere else and not pay their taxes.
We have been conditioned to believe that there is something special about these money hoarders, that they are somehow custodians of our wealth and well-being. Truth is, they are leeches on society who care more about accumulating wealth then they do about giving back to the society from which they extract said wealth.
We should do like the Americans do, and tie citizenship to taxation. If you hold citizenship or you reside in the country you pay income tax.
If you own a company (looking at you James Dyson) and if your company makes profits in the country, that company pays corporation tax on its profits, in this country.
So you can piss off to Monaco (or wherever rich people go to when they have “had enough”) Perhaps living amongst others who are less impressed with your riches or having to be the poorest millionaire will make you realise that a reasonable house, in a good area, is better than a mansion in the slums.
The real question is where has the money gone?
Tax has only gone up in my lifetime, both in direct % like VAT and through the fixing of income tax thresholds.
The government’s total tax revenue must be at or around record levels every year.
Yet what we get for that feels increasingly lacking. Everything seems to be falling apart. Councils can’t provide their core services and are going bust. Accessing healthcare is more difficult than ever, and education is increasingly like the US with teachers providing their own supplies.
Where’s the money gone? Or rather, where has the government’s spending power gone?
This stuff always pops up when markets get twitchy.. Big names like Dalio talk about “debt doom loops” like the UK’s going to collapse unless taxes go up and spending gets slashed.. Thing is, the UK issues its own currency it’s not like a household budget.. We can always meet obligations in pounds because we literally fucking create them.. The actual constraint is inflation, not some arbitrary debt number..
What really causes long-term damage is starving the economy of investment, underfunding public services, pushing people into insecurity just to “balance the books”.. That’s what weakens a country, not higher public debt.. If the government spends wisely .. on health, education, green energy, infrastructure .. it boosts real productivity and resilience.. That’s what matters..
Cutting spending or raising taxes hard just to please markets is how you end up in a REAL doom loop .. low growth, low wages, angry public, repeat.. We’ve been down that road before .. Time to stop treating the national budget like a credit card and focus on what actually makes life better for us all..
The government really needs to start prioritising economic growth in every area of decision making. We’ve had 14 years of the conservatives rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and it looks like Labour are going down the same route. Really going to need to break out from the current economic consensus and lets markets do their thing.
Until rich people pay a higher tax rate and poor people a smaller one this’ll keep going on.