“Questo deve essere l’ultimo sveglia”: ING Chief Economist avverte l’UE dopo un accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti “

AI translation of the original Belgian article: 

The EU and the US concluded a trade agreement last weekend: American importers will pay a 15 percent tariff on European products.

Moreover, the EU promises hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, including in American energy and weapons.

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, considers the deal a final warning for Europe to strengthen its strategic autonomy.

In brief:

“That 15 percent was the highest achievable. We in the EU must realize that we were at the negotiating table from a position of weakness,” says Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, in a radio interview on De Ochtend (Radio 1) reacting calmly to the trade deal made over the weekend between the EU and the US.

The US promises tariffs of “only” 15 percent; in exchange, the EU will invest massively in American energy and products. Critics, including the French Prime Minister, argue that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been rolled over, but Brzeski disagrees.

“We are all Europe, the heads of government are also Europe. It’s typical to allow the Commission to negotiate and criticize afterwards,” he says. According to Brzeski, the EU had no real choice: “We are economically more dependent on the US than vice versa. We are so dependent on exports that we – rightly, in my opinion – did not dare to escalate fully.”

“We just lay down for Trump, and apparently that was necessary to avoid worse.” However, the EU must learn lessons from this, Brzeski believes: “This should be the very last wake-up call for Europe to finally become truly independent and strengthen its own economy.”

Worst case scenario’ avoided

Economic stability was sought by the EU with this agreement. According to Brzeski, there is now a slight relief: “There is now relief that the ‘worst case scenario’ has been avoided. But it is still far from good: the European economy will certainly lose 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.”

In Germany, the focus is mainly on the automobile industry, where a 15 percent tariff will apply instead of the previously imposed 25 percent. Are they relieved there?

“Everything is relative, Einstein taught us. If you fear a hurricane, a storm feels better at first, but there is still damage. At the start of the year, the tariff was 2 percent, so there is an increase,” Brzeski explains.

Difficult promise to realize

What about the investments promised by the EU in America? Europe would purchase $750 billion worth of American energy, on top of buying American military equipment and investing $600 billion in the American economy.

“I don’t know how we will import $750 billion in only American energy. We don’t need that at all,” Brzeski says. “The investments in American military equipment are useful. We want to spend a lot more on defense, but in Europe, we do not yet have the production capacity.”

Finally, Brzeski is surprised by the promised $600 billion investment in the American economy: “I find that interesting because the European Commission cannot promise how much European companies will invest in the US. That promise, I think, is one that will be very difficult to fulfill.”

Miss Ursula needs to go. No wonder we are so weak. Did anyone actually made an effort there? Last time Merkel was so soft with Putin, now Ursula with Trump. 😡

When the EU taco’s before Trump does… they’ve learned nothing about appeasing Trump, he’s just going to come back for more. All they had to do was call Trump’s bluff. Every time someone does Trump collapses. Submitting just sets the stage for more opportunities to grovel and *still* not get the outcome they want.

Europe was supposed to have woken up to Trump a few months ago 
Europe claims it needs more Europe to solve the problems caused by Europe.
All EU members are pro-EU, but that’s not enough.
Everything that’s happened with Russia has strengthened the pro-European position, but it’s not enough to remain dignified in the face of Trump.

In short, Europe will never come out of this coma, and the pro-Europeans will blame the populists for pandering to the American people.

After all the talk about standing up to Trump, they folded stupidly quickly. Either the leadership is weak, or they know he won’t stick to this deal so it doesn’t matter what they promise him for some short term stability, because he will have torn it up in a few weeks as one of his latest tantrums.

Probably the weak part, Europe really needs to take a step back from the USA and their madness…

But there is no deal: just some empty promises to send Trump home happy.

Just think about it: it takes years to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU as any of the member states can veto it. They aren’t agreed in between a couple of rounds of golf and sealed with a handshake.

And look at the “deal” on energy. Firstly the EU can’t tell independent companies where they have to buy there supplies from. Secondly $250 billion a year is just not feasible: it would mean breaking contracts with existing suppliers. And the USA companies would have difficulty supplying that much without cutting off their existing customers.

China showed how to deal with Trump during his first term: pat him on the head, send him home with some empty promises and concentrate on making serious deals with everyone else.

Trump wanted to look like a winner. We make it easier for him in exchange for keeping 15%. It is not necessary to do our part, he knows that we will not do it and he cares little