Perché la Francia è bloccata

Sitting in Paris bracing for the next French political crisis, I found a strangely fascinating table from the IMF. It gives government spending as a percentage of GDP for dozens of countries. Clustered at the top are several isolated microstates: Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Dominica and Micronesia. Counting only countries with populations over 150,000, the biggest spender was Ukraine, at 74 per cent of GDP. Fair enough — it’s fighting an invasion. But next in the table, at a stonking 57 per cent, is a country at peace (except with itself): France.

That number underlies the crisis. With France’s budget deficit hitting 5.8 per cent of GDP, François Bayrou, the fourth prime minister since 2024, wants to cut €44bn from the ever-expanding budget. Since parliament won’t let him, he’ll probably lose a vote of confidence on Monday. Then on Wednesday, protests and strikes aim to “block” an already blocked country. Why can’t France spend less? And where might this end?

Contrary to popular belief, France’s state wasn’t always massive. At liberation in 1944, many people lived on farms without even rudimentary public services, such as electricity or running water. Pensions used to be ungenerous. In 1970, the effective average age of retirement was 68, exactly the age at which the average French man (in an era when most workers were men) died. In 1995, six governments of developed countries were higher spenders than France.

Macron’s remark after taking office that France was not ‘reformable’ appears correct

Then, when the euro arrived in 2002, French politicians calculated that with the European Central Bank printing their money, they could spend with impunity. The prodigality peaked in pensions: French retirement now averages 25 years, about the longest in human history. But spending is also relatively high on health, infrastructure in cities (though not in France’s vast countryside), and — oddly for an obsessively over-centralised country — on local civil servants. Meanwhile, France’s private sector has borrowed merrily too.

French politics is personalised around the figure of the president. After the former Rothschild banker Emmanuel Macron got the job in 2017, the word “neoliberal” pervaded French discourse. France is now routinely described as a “neoliberal wasteland”, its state supposedly slashed by Thatcherites. In the new post-truth era, other absurd beliefs went mainstream, such as the notion that France was uniquely cursed (as witness world-leading French pessimism in opinion polls) or that it was heading for racial civil war.

Then, from 2022, global interest rates rose, punishing spendthrift states. France’s 10-year borrowing costs have jumped to 3.5 per cent, similar to Greece and Italy, albeit below the US and UK. In fact, as so often, France’s dysfunction mirrors Britain’s. One reason the two states have been co-operating on defence is that neither has the money to act alone. It’s like two small companies merging to survive in international markets.

Because France overspends domestically, it can’t afford to help Europe resist Vladimir Putin. Its defence budget is still only 2 per cent of GDP. I recently visited a weapons factory that makes surveillance drones. I imagined it was producing thousands, but was told, “The French military has 14.”

How to cut other spending? Bayrou’s people are trying to persuade opposition parties by trumpeting the improbable claim that the IMF might intervene. The opposition agrees that the debt should fall, but not on any actual measures to make that happen. That’s partly because both main opposition parties are economically far left: Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, which is far right only on immigration and culture wars. Both parties aspire to drive the deficit even higher by lowering the retirement age back from 64 (to which Macron raised it) to 62 or even 60.

Cutting spending would require compromise. But that’s now unthinkable in French politics. Macron’s remark after taking office that France was “not reformable” appears correct. The likelihood is continued stasis, with French debt climbing further from today’s 116 per cent of GDP. Debt-servicing costs, already the budget’s single biggest item at an expected €66bn this year, have begun crowding out other spending. Further downgrades by rating agencies would push up borrowing costs.

The traditional forecast is that the far right will win the presidency in 2027, possibly precipitating a debt crisis. I’ve always doubted that: France’s political saving grace is that the far left and notional far right still loathe each other. But an accident is becoming ever more likely.

>it can’t afford to help Europe resist Vladimir Putin.

Don’t resist ! They say.

I’m not worried. Ever since king Philip the Fair, we have always found a way or another to ~~deal with our creditors,~~ I mean ~~pillage our neighbours,~~ erm…., ~~exploit colonies,~~ ahem… I mean, solve our deficit.

I hope Belgium is reading this

The problem is the same in many countries it’s also a simple fix.

Unfortunately it’s impossible to enact in almost any country. Pension age is too low and funded from general taxation in most. I’m curious to see the effect if France raised the pension age to even 66, what is life expectancy in France now 82?

I don’t believe that people should work until the day they drop or that they shouldn’t retire in condition to enjoy it however it has to be affordable for the state.

I’m in favour of a more individualised retirement system. Have you worked physical labour for 40 years? Then yes you should be able to retire in your early 60s. My own job is desk based but it is stressful I hope when I reach my 60s I can reduce hours or move into a less taxing position for a few years but I could do my job with arthritis a bricklayer or a nurse can’t.

I feel like I already read the same FT article several times over the past 20 years…

As always, those neoliberal media never mentionning the generous 215 B€ gifted without any conditions to french private companies …

Gosh, this paper is full of disinformation.

>That number underlies the crisis.

Not at all, a lot of private spends on other countries are made by the state in France. If you compare with countries with the same model, the difference are slight (belgium 55%, Italy 54%). Health care and pensions are inside french debt, now add those values to the debt of other countries and it will explode.

>French retirement now averages 25 years, about the longest in human history.

Yeah, that is why laws already changed and younger generations will leave later to retirement.

People didn’t accepted the last tries to change the law because **the propositions was unfair**. It was making the poorest categories working longer when they are the ones who die first and it wasn’t changing anything for the upper classes. The gov refused to adjust the age for retirement depending of the arduousness of the jobs and that is what people was asking, making the effort fair.

>Because France overspends domestically, it can’t afford to help Europe resist Vladimir Putin.

France already has one the of the highest spending (%) of European countries. Why the phoque it’s france’s responsibility ? Germany, first economy of the EU was spending way lesser than France. By the way, the german’s strategy was to buy gaz to Russia and depends on USA for defense when France was calling for a total energies’s independence and a “europe of the defense”. But yeah, france responsibility bro’…

>The opposition agrees that the debt should fall, but not on any actual measures to make that happen.

That is such a lie, the opposition is refusing shitty measures that cut money for the working class and keep giving money to the rich. The socialist even plan to propose a different plan to cut the debt up to 21bn but in a fair way ([the plan](https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2025/08/30/le-ps-devoile-son-budget-alternatif-suspension-de-la-reforme-des-retraites-taxe-sur-les-patrimoines-baisse-de-la-csg-et-relance-economique_6637534_823448.html)).

>Cutting spending would require compromise. But that’s now unthinkable in French politics.

I bet the author is opened about other solutions that cutting the spending for working classes, right ? Starting a discussion by saying there is only one solution is not making compromise.

By the way, that is the right and only the right who made the debt sky rocking by cutting taxes on the rich people and giving away a lot of money to big companies (that finished on the pockets of owners).

>Then, when the euro arrived in 2002, French politicians calculated that with the European Central Bank printing their money, they could spend with impunity.

That doesn’t check out.

https://www.worldeconomics.com/GrossDomesticProduct/debt-to-gdp-ratio/France.aspx

From 1995 to 2008 (the banking crisis) it’s pretty much the most stable period on the graph, which starts in 1980.

It does not contradict that there’s a persistent trend of increasing debt, but that that it started because of the Euro.

Well 25% of our budget goes to pensions. And no one want to touch pensioners, so…

France needs to win glorious battles once more!

Bueno ya de por si la sociedad francesa está contaminada, es explosiva y además cansada. Los políticos en vez de ayudar que para eso en teoría están la cagan mas y más y que creen “ya no hay Colonias que saquear”, Francia se la pasa mas en disturbios que ningún otro país. Para mi el estado francés está cerca de venirse a bajo algunas cosas lo están manteniendo a duras penas donde fuera estado no Unión europa no me quiero imaginar la inflación y costo de vida de mierda (?)

Han abandonado el campo 🚜 con políticas que los fulmina.
En infraestructura son mediocres.
La deuda sube y sube.
Y la pensiones ohh que dolor de cabeza
Ni que decir del crimen organizado que no se habla mucho sobre todo Lyon o Marsella.

En tiempos difíciles debe venir un hombre fuerte y sin contemplación ya basta de esa basura de democracia, bienestar y cuánta cosa me enferma cuando escucho eso de un político y el país una reverenda mierda.

Analysis in the article is not correct. Spending did not rise in percent of the GDP, it is tax cuts from the Macron government, especially on CAC40 companies and ultra high incomes that raised the debt so much. The country is stuck because he doesn’t want to consider the option to raise these taxes again and prefers to have the 80% of the french population pay for debt he created in his 7 years of presidency.