Le garanzie di sicurezza per l’Ucraina richiedono la prontezza per affrontare la Russia

I think war is coming. If you look at the pedigree of both aggressors: Russia and the US. I feel a democratic Europe has the advantage.

The US was run out of Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia. Experienced total capitulation in Vietnam. Took a pass on sending troops into a modern Serbia. Lots of fancy weapons to blow things up. Very little follow-up capability once boots hit the ground. Europe can take heart.

Russia is also a paper-tiger IMO. Without their strategic advantage of geography, climate and quite frankly – a knife at their throat. Their Army has never functioned as a particularly cohesive unit IMHO.

As for the right wing in Europe: these guys should be careful what they wish for. When War breaks out they’ll be mopped-up and thrown into fighting battalions on the front. Much like what happened to the active British Nazi Party membership in the UK when World War II broke out. In this respect they’re turkeys ‘voting’ for Christmas.

Can anyone see my point?

Of which there is exactly zero.
Esp now they have an ample supply of battle hardened troops.

The audacity of offering guarantees, as if they carry any real weight, after tricking Ukraine into giving up its nukes for empty promises that failed to stop Russia’s invasion. No one believes these assurances anymore. the so-called union looks less like a power and more like a collection of complacent, fading states.

The EU in its current state is irrelevant.

I find it really telling that none of you are in the comments refuting the statement. You wonder why the US is doing the negotiating because you guys still seem to lack the will to fight if Russia breaks the agreement. 

After the performance recently at Windsor Castle, I no longer have ANY faith in King Charles III. It is looking more and more like he is slowly becoming a Trump sycophant.

We need to be clear about what a security *guarantees* mean, and how that differs from the security *assurances* that Ukraine was given in the Budapest Memorandum.

“Assurances” = “I wont do anything *to* you,” i.e. the US, UK, and Russia agreed they would respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. In a Hohfeldian analysis, it created an immunity against the will of potential enemies, not a claim on the will of potential allies. Russia broke that immunity in 2014, and, seeing how poorly the Ukrainian army responded, the US and UK responded by beginning to train Ukrainian officers. They didn’t have to, but they wanted to because Russia threatened European security.

“Guarantees” = “I will do something for you,” meaning if someone else attacks Ukraine, we will come to their defense. It creates a claim by Ukraine on the will of its allies. Russia is already attacking Ukraine, so unless we are willing to begin fighting Russia to defend them immediately, we can’t give them meaningful guarantees.

He’s absolutely Correct!