#Readingrussia nei documenti russi di oggi: la Russia ha bisogno di risorse “per condurre ostilità in Ucraina per almeno 2, anche 3 anni”. Nel frattempo, “non è più possibile negare i segni della carenza di benzina nelle regioni”. Inoltre, le tariffe di utilità da aumentare, il finanziamento scientifico diminuisce. Steve Rosenberg BBC News

Rosenberg will be missed the day he stops reporting from Russia.

lol the first line already gets to the point of all the russian supporters that call for “peace”, showing what kind of “peace” it is – *”If there’ll be no Ukraine, Europe will never fight with us”*

*”(yadda yadda we need China to give us money and weapons) that allow us to conduct hostilities in Ukraine for at least two or even three years”* – Conduct hostilities? My brother in Christ, didn’t you say you were helping/liberating bullied ethnic russians against nazis/satanists/gays etc. before?

*”In some regions there has been a shortage of petrol for several weeks now.”* – good.

*”funding for russian science is falling”* – doublegood. 17 times behind the US, 15 times behind China, 4 times behind Japan

Russia already has burned hundreds of billion dollars, mortgaged its future to China and North Korea and wiped out any pretense of technological catch up in this crazy gambit for Ukraine. To imagine that the country would spend essentially the whole 2020s in high attrition warfare and in war economy mode is next level Orwellian.

Putin has three last hopes:

– the far right takes over Paris, Berlin and Brussels and turns the EU inwards US-style

– the chinse intensify their support and become the actual purveyor of all the russian military hardware, or even decide to send troops and begin WWIII in the Donbass

– an oil shock.

Short of any of these scenarios (and #1 frightens me the most), he is cooked. The EU rearmament will give more and more resources to Ukraine and to European deterrence as a potential giant slowly awakens. In three years time, on the other hand the russian economy will be decrepit.

And then, should the war stop, he will have to manage the homecoming of hundreds of thousands of savaged soldiers who raped, looted and murdered for years in Ukraine, plus the agonizly difficult return to a civilan economy.

Dunno, last years brought sth in me. Whenever I hear of ruZZia struggling I fell happiness and satisfaction. The more the better

This war is going to get very weird if it continues for 2-3 more years. Russia is going to begin to enter severe shortages of vehicles (tanks in particular) in 2026 as their old stocks are depleted. I know they’ve had small operational success by using thermal sheets and motorbikes for assaults, but fundamentally you can’t replace en masse the offensive benefit of tanks with small arms and motorbikes.

I reckon the 2 or 3 more years is for when China/Taiwan will kick off.. we need to shut them down in the next 6 to 12 months.