Gavan Reilly: il sondaggio dell’opinione di oggi mostra semplicemente quanto sia vicina questa gara Áras

I don’t think he can read polls. 🤔
Edit: I thought it was Jim Gavin saying how close the poll was. My bad.

Honestly finding it very hard to choose one from three very uninspiring candidates

I’m going to vote Connolly. I think Gavan Reilly’s points in this article are very fair, and I also really appreciate his modelling of results. He rightly points out that Jim Gavin is in real trouble here. Barring any major changes, I think it’s going to come down to whether Humphreys can get enough transfers from Gavin. The undecideds may also play a role, as for some reason I think they might go more for the FF or FG candidates than they will for Connolly.

As long as Connolly doesn’t get in, I really don’t care who gets it. I’d rather either charisma vacuums than her. We don’t need someone so toxic to diplomatic relations

Gavin is sinking, if not already sank. Can’t FF just transfer his support to HH?

Does the population of Ireland want a change or not. Connolly will get my vote, she’s pragmatic, experience and has a sense of humour. It’s about time an alternative Ireland broke through in elections.

The other two stated that Eastern Europe is likely to be invaded by Russia, I’ve never geard such wild stuff, just fear mongering nonsense.

Shouldn’t Gavin be chathed with theft, from stealing money from his tenants. A thief. Vulture.

I think the poll represents the fact that Connolly has been successful in energising her base rather than to appealing to the centre.

But the flip side to that is that I reckon that the 32% figure is pretty much the maximum support of her base. I think she’ll struggle to attract as much from the undecideds. I think the bulk of them are centrist voters who haven’t made up their mind between Humphries and Gavin. Put it this way, if FFG put out a unified candidate, I’d say there’d be far fewer undecideds.

With Gavin’s campaign in serious trouble, I think those candidates will probably start to swing towards Humphries. I think a lot of them will be concerned about Connolly’s surprisingly high support and row in behind the likely centrist candidate to beat her.

Piss poor selection of candidates to be honest. Connolly is the best of a not so great lot.