Quale epitaffio per il FCAS, il futuro sistema aereo da combattimento europeo?

> **Decisive day in Berlin for the Future Air Combat System (FCAS). The German, Spanish and French defence ministers are meeting to decide the future of this European programme, which is in serious trouble due to irreconcilable positions between Airbus and Dassault.**

> Is there another future for a European air combat programme beyond the FCAS (Future Combat Air System), which has been in serious trouble for several months? This is the question that the German, Spanish and French defence ministers (Boris Pistorius, Margarita Robles and Catherine Vautrin respectively) and the main industrial players involved in the FCAS must answer today in Berlin. Unless there is a miracle in Berlin, the FCAS programme, estimated at €100 billion, has very little chance of surviving as it was conceived in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron and in its current form (a fighter aircraft). Phase 1B is likely to be the last.

> Is this the last chance meeting? While it is necessary to remain cautious about the final outcome of highly political programmes such as FCAS, this meeting will certainly send a strong signal about the desire to save what can still be saved between Germany, Spain and France. The most solid plan B is to refocus the programme on a common and interoperable combat cloud with two different fighter jets. Emmanuel Macron has not yet made up his mind. “We believe in it, we are moving forward and we will send the necessary messages to industry,” the President announced in mid-November at a summit on technological sovereignty in Berlin.

> ### Macron wants the FCAS as it stands, but…

> What is certain is that the French President is committed to this programme in its current form. This programme has an “obligation to deliver” and represents a “test of credibility” for Europe, he explained in mid-November. However, he no longer seems to have the power to force Dassault Aviation to reconcile with its partner Airbus on the famous pillar 1 of the FCAS (Future Combat Aircraft or NGF), whose leadership is inconsistent (two-thirds Airbus – Germany and Spain – and one-third Dassault, which has been entrusted with project management). As such, “the positions of the two groups are irreconcilable,” confirms a source close to the matter.

> Why are they so opposed? “The central issue is the sharing of leadership between Dassault and Airbus: who has the power to decide what, who will be included in a decision. On these points, there is a fundamental disagreement” between the two groups, says another source close to the matter. Airbus is calling for more ‘inclusive’ leadership, while Dassault is insisting on much clearer, even exclusive, governance of pillar 1, as Guillaume Faury explained on France Inter radio station on Wednesday: ‘if one player says: it’s on my terms or it’s not happening. That’s not very conducive’ to cooperation. The CEO of Airbus no longer seems to believe in a positive outcome for the FCAS. “I don’t think an ambitious industrial project can succeed without a clearly identified leader. Give me an example of a project of this scale that works without a conductor,” said Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, at the end of July.

> In Paris, some have suggested that orders to the French aircraft manufacturer should be cut off to make it give in. But is this really reasonable at a time when the world is becoming so dangerous? Such a decision would penalise the French Air Force much more than Dassault Aviation, whose order book is full of export orders. The future of the FCAS now depends on the will of Dassault Aviation.

> ### Merz follows Macron, but for how long?

> German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is currently toeing the same line as Emmanuel Macron: a single fighter jet. But he must also take into account the fragility of his coalition, which is divided over the future of the FCAS. The aircraft manufacturer is increasingly exasperating and frustrating Germany. The powerful German industrial union IG Metall stated in a letter sent on Monday to German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil that it no longer trusts Dassault with regard to the FCAS. “We enjoy working with French companies,” IG Metall assured, “but not with Dassault.”

> In mid-November, in the presence of Emmanuel Macron, the Chancellor explained that the two leaders would, by the end of the year, “discuss the matter in the coming days and take a decision on how to move to the next phase”. In Germany, a question is increasingly being asked about the FCAS, La Tribune explains: “Is it without Dassault and without France?” Such a scenario would be terrible for France, which would then have to finance a 6th generation aircraft in its entirety in a catastrophic financial context…

Simply put, Airbus is 66% of the partnership, Dassault is 33%.

Dassault want to lead and have a say in who does what, and what they will do. This includes the design of the plane.

Airbus are saying, we’re funding 66% of the plane, so want 66% of the share, we also want a say in the direction of the plane.

Lastly, Dassault don’t want their expertise, their edge, to be lost and diluted. They don’t want to give valuable experience and IP to Germany as the next fighter Airbus will not need Dassault.

I imagine a lot of the shouting and bad blood right now is for show, to give their side a bit of leverage in the coming days of this meeting.

The UK and Italy are obviously stirring the pot a little, giving Germany an “out” but that out wont be as tasty as Germany want but it does give them move leverage.

France can make a 6th gen plane but it will be very expensive. Germany can make one, but it will take longer and be very expensive also.

For once in France, the government is actually not going to decide this alone. Macron’s weak, and has no majority. He is/was the main push for FCAS, MGCS, etc, but in this case he can’t ram anything through if the deal is not liked.

Even LFI (far left) put a bill to ditch the project and fund a national alternative.