Il capo di stato maggiore della NATO ha dichiarato alla televisione olandese che il previsto aumento paneuropeo della spesa per la difesa non è sufficiente per sostituire gli Stati Uniti, che costerebbero molto di più e richiederebbero decenni

We don’t need aircraft carriers to make them chill somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. I understand thought the fear Teflon has to lose his job.

But we have to start soon or later!
Euro nuke!

Below is a verbatim translation in English of the answer provided by the NATO CoS during the interview

TV Host: Some have claimed that the planned 3.5% spending is not sufficient, do we have to do more based on the current world situation and new world order?

Geoffrey van Leeuwen (NATO CoS): we’re at the beginning of investing, we have just started… If you really wanted something like European independence in defense [independent of the USA] then you need a completely new program…then you would need to go back to the drawing board… you would need to spend much more… our 3.5% target is based on continued close cooperation with the USA not only in the nuclear umbrella, long range weapons, ISR, intelligence… everything you want to know about the enemy.. before we could have that independently we are multiple decades in the future with a much more significant cost… we have planned all our increases within the NATO existing structure, if governments want something else it will be much more expensive.

Edit: to prevent any confusion, the interview was with the Chief of Staff to Rutte, not Rutte himself. That said, this guy is pictured everywhere from Brussels to the White House and is his right hand man

If Europe goes on with its current new investment plans then that will make a huge difference.

Europe is already spending at a pace Russia can’t keep up with and the gap will increase.

To further boost EU capabilities even loftier spending pledges isn’t the solution. Now the focus needs to be on structural changes that gives more bang for our bucks.

The entire “replace the US” focus is a distraction and how hard they are to replace depends on how much you believe they currently bring to the table. And that is ultimately more about political trust than military power.

We should focus less on the US and more on Russia and other security concerns. What do we need to face the challenges Europe faces.

I mean that’s not really wrong; replacing the US in our security architecture is in my view now completely inevitable, but it will cost a lot and take decades.

The US has roughly spent 3-4% of GDP on defense for the past 20 years. That includes have quite a few forces fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq. It also includes having 13 carrier battle groups and bases all around the planet. Europeans somewhere between 1-2%. Obviously we can replace the Americans without people feeling a lot of hardship. Going to 5% will be felt but will also overshoot quite a lot.

Europeans are as capable as Americans. If we want to, we can replace the equipment and manpower contribution from the US. What is harder is stuff like military intelligence (we would need a European Military Intelligence Service).

We also have a fragmented defense industry. That means that we are wasting a ton of money there. Why does almost every nation have their own frigate design? How many companies are making similar military radars? How many different air defense systems do we have (why does Italians and French SAMP/T systems use different radars)? We will need to consolidate the defense industry so that it is no longer national.

I think a lot of countries would accept that as long as the defense industry ensured that jobs were created all over Europe (based on defense spending). However, there are also countries that would want to resist this (aka France).

Then there is the need for nukes. Yes, France and the UK have nukes but will they use them to defend Zilupe (Latvia)? And indeed, the hardest part will be to create a credible structure – both conventional and nuclear – where the Russians know that they cannot divide us. Because only if the Russians know that we actually stand together – that it isn’t just words on a piece of paper – only then will we deter them.

I don’t really think a post-US NATO needs to be as strong as it was before, just strong enough so that any of Russia, China, or the US would lose enough assets going up against it that they would end up being dogmeat for the other two. Honestly, we are pretty much there now. We really just need to grow a little, modernize, and introduce a more practical focus on readiness, industrial capacity, and unaided deployability.

So do nothing ?

Of course spending far too little for 30 years cannot be compensated for a short period of just enough spending. This should be self-evident.

The fact of the matter is that per the FT, Europe saved around 280 billion PPP annually since the end of the Cold War by spending less on defense.

I am sick of this defeatist attitude. FFS!! If everyone keeps bitching about that which THEY believe is impossible, no one will ever get to the finish line. The USA needs the EU to purchase weapons from them. The EU does not have to purchase everything from the US. Buy what is required and build the other stuff in the EU. Where there is a will there is a way. The US is blackmailing the EU. This is not what allies do.

We don’t need to replace the us. We need to be able to stand our ground while giving the middle finger to Russia – without the unreliable ex-allied in the west.

A EU-wide wealth tax will solve this very quickly, its not a problem.

Sounds like he’s mirroring Rutte and making sure the sale is complete, that said, leaving your safety to America might have worked under a liberal democratic government but as America makes the transition to authoritarianism, there will be many faults Europe’s population may regret.

Im not from europe so forgive me if this is dumb. Let’s pretend europe can get together and act as one, would it not make alot of sense to combine all forces together, like one european navy that runs identical equipment stationed along the coast, one air force etc.. I know thats wishful thinking but it would cut overhead and redundancy… no?

Last I checked just US air presence over Europe costs more per year than Poland’s entire defence budget. I can’t remember if that includes the cost of the existing aircraft.

 Stepping up our game is a monumental task. 

He’s not wrong.

So better start today than not at all.